Opinion polls are in season. Scepticism is in order
There are opinion polls and then there are opinion polls. In the last fortnight,we have first watched CNN-IBN reveal the findings of public responses to a possible general election and then the Times Now findings on the same issue. Both predict the outcome of the next Lok Sabha elections if they were to be held now. Both predict a three- or four-way division of the spoils. So whats the difference? Well,the first is called the CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu Election Tracker,while the latter is called the Times Now-C Voter Opinion Poll. Or the India TV-C Voter Opinion Poll. Whats in a name? Maybe we should ask HRH Prince George Alexander Louis of Cambridge since he has so many!
The current election surveys or the opinion polls take your pick tell us what all of us already think: that the Congress and UPA will receive a hard rap on its knuckles but the BJP-NDA will not receive a thumbs up. The remaining national/ regional parties will be waiting for one of the two national parties to offer them a warm handshake. There have been furious debates on CNN-IBN,IBN-7,Times Now and India TV between politicians of all hues and journalists from different publications on the implications of the predictions. Its been entertaining to watch Congress and BJP politicians welcome the findings of the survey-poll when their party
was shown to be making gains and to rubbish it as we heard Abhishek Manu Singhvi do on Times Now when the figures went against them.
Election opinion polls can be inaccurate,sometimes spectacularly so. We have only to remember that opinion polls had incorrectly predicted a BJP-NDA victory in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. So they need to be taken with a tablespoon
of salt. Having said that,these polls are wonderful creatures: they stretch and stretch until they have spread out across maybe five days. They allow TV news channels to indulge in endless speculation on conclusions that can eventually be totally wrong. But who will remember? Meanwhile,they are highly watchable who doesnt want to know how the electorate might vote in Uttar Pradesh? Or just how low the mighty Congress may have fallen? Its a numbers game,a delightful jamboree and maybe,just maybe,the prediction will be accurate.
Its interesting,by the way,that the dada of opinion polls in India,Prannoy Roy,has dropped out of the reckoning. NDTV no longer conducts the all-India opinion polls of the general election kind a pity,because the combination of Roy and Dorab Sopariwala was something we all looked forward to.
While were on NDTV 24×7,there was a thoughtful,informative discussion on Dialogues,Monday. Anchor Sonia Singh had economist Amartya Sen,British politician and economist Lord Meghnad Desai and author-commentator Gurcharan Das debate the contradictions of India. They are all argumentative Indians but theyre not loud,argumentative Indians and that makes all the difference when theyre talking on serious subjects.
In entertainment,Shah Rukh Khan is using every opportunity to promote his new film release Chennai Express. Hes even on that longstanding joke,Taarak Mehta ka Ooltah Chashmah (SAB TV). He was on its sets,Tuesday,much to the joy of the entire cast who heaped praise on him like it was the latest government dole out. But he was having none of it and maintained an inscrutable silence before everyone took to the floor with dance moves. What wont actors do for a film?
Bade Achhe Lagte Hain (Sony) has suffered an air crash. The wreckage of the plane and the bodies of the travellers were artistically strewn all over a forest/ jungle. Never seen so many dead bodies from a crash without any injuries. Mercifully,lead pair,Priya and Mr Kapoor,survived the accident and have just discovered daughter Pihu after a laborious trek through the unfriendly terrain. There was a plane crash in Greys Anatomy (Zee Café) recently,but that was done very simply by focusing on the survivors. When will we ever learn?
shailaja.bajpai@expressindia.com
