Opinion The key to MP
Despite the lack of evident anti- or pro-incumbency,development politics may be the gamechanger
Despite the lack of evident anti- or pro-incumbency,development politics may be the gamechanger
As Madhya Pradesh goes to the polls today,the election has familiar contours. Unlike many of its neighbours,MP is largely a two-party state. Until the last decade,the Congress was the dominant party,retaining power since MPs formation in 1956,apart from two brief interruptions 1977-79 (Janata Party) and 1990-92 (BJP). The steady weakening of the Congresss grip led to a two-party system,with the BJP gaining momentum from the 1990s. Since then,the state has remained stubbornly bipolar,even though the BSP has been trying to make inroads.
In the assembly polls of 2008,the BJP had retained 143 seats with 37.6 per cent of the vote. The Congress improved on its 2003 tally of 38,going up to 71 seats with 32.4 per cent of the vote. Though the BSP secured its best performance with 8.9 per cent of the vote,that translated to only seven seats. Another important player in this election was the Uma Bharti-led BJSH,which secured 4.7 per cent of the vote and five seats. Bhartis entry into the BJP fold before the election could have changed results further in the BJPs favour. The MP assembly has reserved 35 seats for SCs and 47 for STs. In 2008,the BJP got 25 SC and 28 ST seats. It is also important that not a single seat reserved for SCs went to the BSP.
Therefore,the binary format of political competition continues,with high entry-level barriers for others. While the BJP is contesting with Shivraj Singh Chouhans as its face,the Congress has not projected anyone. Despite ruling MP for much longer,the Congress has found it difficult to combat Chouhans leadership and style of functioning,which helped the BJP override anti-incumbency in 2008. The scenario in 2013 is not that different,though there appear to be strong anti-incumbency sentiments against individual MLAs and ministers.
The Congress leadership does not appear as united as it should be. It has witnessed factionalism and infighting. Many of the national stalwarts who have represented MP in the past have led separate factions within the state party,creating a quota system. At present,the Congresss state unit seems concentrated around three major power centres Digvijaya Singh,Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia. Despite party leaders appearing together at all the big rallies in the last couple of months,they have not been unable to resolve or set aside their differences for the campaign. Scindias elevation to campaign chief has energised the party rank and file,but as in the past,there is more than one aspirant for the party ticket from each constituency. Rahul Gandhi,on his visit to Mohankheda in April,categorically stated that factionalism was a major problem. He also said that tickets would be finalised long before the election,but that did not happen.
On the other side is the BJP,which, having completed its second consecutive term,has also seen occasional factionalism rising to the surface. Chouhan initiated the campaign with a Jan Aashirvad Yatra,trying to convince people that his record as chief minister merited another term in office. He is also banking on the popularity of his schemes for girls,women and the weaker sections of society.
Early campaigning suggested that there was no wave against or in favour of either party. Neither strong anti-incumbency,nor pro-incumbency sentiment was visible,especially as the Congresss campaign acquired momentum after the leadership was consolidated. Thus,undercurrents remain difficult to read. But politics on the development agenda has remained crucial and might be a gamechanger,as several polls seem to indicate.
The writer is professor,Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research,Ujjain
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