Opinion The great Game Folio
A fortnightly column on the high politics of the Af-Pak region,the fulcrum of global power play in Indias neighbourhood ....
Chinas shadow
China has promoted security and stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. With that simple statement in his Asia policy speech in Tokyo last week,Obama has acknowledged Beijing as the newest power in the Great Game.
Beijing,of course,has not been waiting for Washingtons permission to play a larger role in the Great Game. As a weakened Washington struggles to recast its strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan,Beijing has already made itself indispensable.
Thanks to its decline in the 19th century,China was marginal to the Great Game between British India and Russia. In the middle of the 20th century,China,under Communist leadership,reasserted its territorial control over Xinjiang and Tibet and re-emerged in the Central Asian theatre. As Soviet Russia and America fought over Afghanistan in the final years of the Cold War,Beijing was tilted towards Washington,but was not the decisive player.
A different story has begun to unfold this decade. Besides its traditional all-weather friendship with Pakistan,a rising China has steadily expanded its political engagement and economic presence in Afghanistan.
If and when the United States eventually withdraws from Afghanistan,China,in collaboration with Pakistan is bound to gain a decisive role in the region. Beijing,naturally,has not put all its eggs in the Pakistan basket. It has been reaching out to President Hamid Karzai and all the other major political factions and formations in Afghanistan.
Even if an exhausted America sticks around the north-western parts of the subcontinent,it will need a lot more cooperation from China in stabilising Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whatever might happen in Afghanistan there is not much that China can lose.
G-2 on Indo-Pak
The conduct of American foreign policy is far more organised and intellectually enriched than that of India. But there seems little institutional memory in Washington about events and controversies that occurred just a decade ago.
If there was a bit of recall,Obamas advisers might have avoided referring to Indias ties with Pakistan in their joint statement. In June 1998,a few weeks after the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests,President Bill Clinton issued a strong statement on South Asian nuclear proliferation in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart,Jiang Zemin.
India,in response,went ballistic and denounced the talk of a Sino-US nuclear condominium over the subcontinent. Delhi is a lot less jittery these days and could well choose to ignore the references to India and Pakistan in the joint statement issued by Presidents Obama and Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
In the section on regional and global issues,Obama and Hu welcomed all efforts conducive to peace,stability and development in South Asia. The two leaders went on to extend their support to the efforts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight terrorism,maintain domestic stability and achieve sustainable economic and social development,and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan.
What might make some people see red in Delhi is the final proposition on South Asia in the Obama-Hu joint statement. The two sides are ready to strengthen communication,dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia and work together to promote peace,stability and development in that region.
Delhi,of course,cant stop Washington and Beijing from discussing South Asia in their bilateral engagement. But Washington should be left in no doubt that bringing Beijing into the Indo-Pak equation is absolutely unacceptable to Delhi.
Police training
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh lands in Washington at the end of this week as pressure mounts on Obama to complete the extended review of the US strategy in Afghanistan. Whatever the final decision might be,training the Afghan security forces and letting them take a larger responsibility role for the security of the nation is expected to be an important element of the new strategy.
One way India can be helpful to the United States is to offer a larger Indian commitment to the training mission in Afghanistan. Neither Delhi seeks nor does Washington want a larger Indian military role in Afghanistan. But there should be a lot of scope for India to assist Afghanistan in expanding and strengthening its police forces.
The writer is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington DC
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