The Duke of Wellington said at Waterloo that he was more scared of his own army than he was of Naploeons. The Prime Minister may soon feel the same way. On relations between Dr Singh and Sonia Gandhi,Congress spokesperson Janardhan Dwivedi was quoted as saying,The understanding between the two can never be better than it exists today.
Read carefullythis is bad news indeed. Since if the understanding can never be better than it is today,it means it is bound to get worse. Maybe Dwivedi meant to say,It has never been better than it is today. But maybe not. He may be giving a subtle hint that as far as Congress loyalists are concerned,Dr Singhs days are numbered. The hardened loyalists in the Congress have never taken to the Prime Minister whom they think of as an interloper. Arjun Singh felt it beneath him even to attend Cabinet meetings presided over by Dr Singh as he thought he was more senior. Today there are mutterings that the Congress is sacrificing far too much to prevent a JPC from being formed just due to Dr Singhs reluctance to appear before it. This is also why there are rumours floated by Congress sources about a mid-term election.
Sonia Gandhi has managed to revive the Congress and turn its fortunes around. But she is a very risk-averse person. Hence,the Congress suffers all these humiliations just so that it stays in power till 2014. The gameplan used to be victory in UP in 2012,Dr Singh to retire gracefully then and Rahul Gandhi inaugurated as PM with two years to spare before 2014. Survival till 2012 and beyond is thus the one item agenda of the Congress. Its partners know this and exploit it.
Alas,that scenario fell apart in Bihar. The Congress will not get anywhere in UP. This is not because Rahul Gandhi lacks charisma,but because charisma of one leader does not win elections any longer. You need local leaders with some profile who can assure voters that they understand their problems. In UP,the Congress has not got such a person. Indeed,the fact that the choice of regional Congress leaders is done centrally without any election by Sonia Gandhi shows that the Congress has no faith in local leaders. In Andhra Pradesh,the Congress has trouble because it does not have a viable alternative to the dynastic successor Jaganmohan Reddy. When you get to Gujarat,there is no one with any visibility to challenge Narendra Modi. In Maharashtra,the Congress keeps on changing chief ministers as fast as it can.
Thus,if Congress loyalists think they can get rid of Dr Singh,they need to find an alternative. If a mid-term poll is held,it will be unpredictable since some of the coalition partners will not reform their waysfor instance,Mamata Banerjee or Sharad Pawar and some like the DMK are toxic now. So,the Congress will need to go alone and try its luck. But if that is to be the case,why bother with a mid-term election at all? Why not just jettison the UPA partners and go it alone within this Parliament?
Finally,there is the problem of After Manmohan Who? Rahul Gandhi is not yet ready and may not even be willing. If the Congress forces Dr Singh out,some things are predictablethe Sensex would fall by 5,000 points in an afternoon and Indias image will suffer. It will take a long time to restore confidence; even Rahul Gandhi taking on the job may not be enough. The Congress better think the answer to this question before 2014.
