Opinion Political roulette
The reshuffle smacks of a tired old party making the tired old moves
The only signal that the Congress party gives these days is that it does not know what signal to give. This cabinet reshuffle was perhaps the most anticipated in recent times. The government has been beleaguered like no other government in memory. There is actually nostalgia going around for the days of Deve Gowda and Inder Gujral. Its legitimacy and efficacy have been profoundly eroded. The prime minister himself had been hinting elliptically at more like a restructuring than a meaningless rearrangement of chairs. There was the endless talk about giving the young an even more prominent role. On all of these criteria the reshuffle is a deep disappointment.
The reshuffle does nothing to restore the credibility of the government. It does nothing to signal that the PM wants to at least try and make a new start. And it only reminds people that for the Congress you have to be somewhere in your sixties to even begin to be counted as not young. Perhaps you can be a minister of state. But cabinet berths still require age seniority. It is an interesting question whether this is because the young brigade does not know how to claim power,or because it is actively sidelined to keep the spotlight firmly on Rahul Gandhi amongst those of his generation. Certainly the age pattern of ministers will fuel this speculation. In short,the reshuffle smacks of a tired old party,making the tired old moves.
Admittedly,the cabinet reshuffle was always going to be constrained by several factors: the need to induct ministers from particular states and the imperatives of coalition politics cut down the PMs room. It would be premature to comment on individual ministers; perhaps some will grow in their positions and do good work. Often,good work is not of the sort that catches the public eye. But the reshuffle seems to reveal something about the Congresss political strategy. First,the party will try and ride out the current dent to its legitimacy,not by introducing serious reform at top-level governance. It is probably safe to say that its political strategy is now largely going to be focused on Uttar Pradesh,not on major governance reform. The party will be hoping that if it can make a good showing in UP,the political momentum will again shift in its favour. In the meantime,it is best to keep things in a holding pattern. The strategy is premised on an assumption that anti-incumbency and direct mobilisation on the ground in UP are far more important electorally than governance performance at the Centre. This assumption may well prove costly.
Second,crisis managers have become indispensable to the party. The party has more legitimate cabinet aspirants than it can accommodate. But,despite many claimants,Kapil Sibal has,probably for good reason,become indispensable. He holds on to an unprecedented combination of portfolios: HRD and telecom. Pranab Mukherjee has long played the trouble-shooter,which left little room for manoeuvre amongst the big portfolios. Of the big four,the only vulnerable minister was S.M. Krishna. But the foreign ministry is a considerably diminished force,since foreign policy is very much controlled by the PMO. In the current context,parliamentary affairs may well turn out to be an important political ministry,and so another apparently skilful negotiator is inducted in.
Third,the party continues to be risk-averse; it finds it hard to take bets on fresh talent. Amongst the changes which seem to have substantive stakes,the departure of Jairam Ramesh,from the environment ministry,is perhaps of most interest. In terms of budget,the ministry of rural development,to which he has been moved,has considerable importance. The ministry is also involved in NREGA and anti-poverty programmes. But it is politically important as well. It will now have to pilot the important land acquisition bill,and will require some real consensus-building skills. Not least,there will be serious divisions on this bill within the coalition itself.
But in many ways Rameshs performance in the environment ministry seemed game-changing at several levels. For one thing,he was unusual in his governance style. Whether you agreed or disagreed,whether they were partisan or rule-governed,his speaking orders took ownership of decisions in a way very few ministers do. Lots of new ideas and institutions were in the process of being cooked. But,most importantly,India had staked out a new path in the important climate change negotiations. Whether we like it or not,this is the one change in which the world at large,and perhaps even business,will try and read some significance. It says something about our system that we can never tell for sure whether this change actually was a way of sending a signal,and if so about what. Was it a signal about the environment,or was it a signal about Jairam Ramesh?
The problem of signalling applies to the other seemingly significant shift. We may read something into Veerappa Moilys departure from the law ministry. But then corporate affairs is not exactly an insignificant ministry. So any conclusions will be mere speculation. The point is,the pattern of change does not add up to much by way of a signal on a ministers political performance. This is a political roulette,nothing more,nothing less. It makes nonsense of the claims that performance matters a lot. There will be some disappointment that the reshuffle does not signal renewed energy in a range of ministries important for Indias future,such as power.
But more than the cabinet reshuffle,the interesting question is whether we will now see the cabinet functioning as a cabinet. This government has diminished the stature of several institutions,the cabinet amongst them. The idea of collective responsibility,the cornerstone of parliamentary democracy,has taken a severe beating in recent months. The PM cannot continue to project the cabinet ministers actions as if they were done by some third party; ministers in turn will have to dampen appearances to the effect that each is on his or her own trip. More than a reshuffle,what is required is a change in the style of functioning of government.
But this reshuffle has become such a metaphor for this government: high expectations,poor performance. It seems people in charge cannot take decisive actions that will signal new directions. What the PM signals and what he does are two entirely different things. The more the Congress promises change,the more things remain the same. Its response to serious malfunction is not to reboot; it is to hope that the problem will sort itself out.
The writer is president,Centre for Policy Research,Delhi,express@expressindia.com
Share
