Opinion Couples therapy

So when Beijing and Washington announced that Obama and Xi would meet for two days (June 7-8) in Sunnylands,about 100 miles east of Los Angeles,analysts of US-China relations were duly intrigued by the informality of such an important event. According to diplomatic protocol,Xi will have to wait for his official visit to the US until after Obama goes to Beijing (for a second visit) because Xi’s predecessor,Hu Jintao,paid a state visit to Washington in January 2011. More traditional Chinese leaders would almost certainly have rejected such an informal summit because it does not provide the symbolic political value they seek. By accepting such an invitation,Xi perhaps wishes to demonstrate that he is different from his face-obsessed predecessors. If that is the case,Xi has already scored points by being more pragmatic and substantive (Xi will be visiting four Latin American countries after the stop in California).

However,the agenda that awaits Obama and Xi in Sunnylands is a daunting one. US-China relations have deteriorated markedly since Obama’s visit to Beijing in November 2009. In the last three and a half years,Washington’s policy toward Beijing has gone through a dramatic change. Disappointed by Beijing’s lukewarm response to its initial warm outreach and alarmed by assertive Chinese behaviour in East Asia,the Obama administration made a mid-course correction in its China policy in 2010. The result is the “pivot to Asia”,a planned shift of the bulk of American naval forces to Asia as part of a broader strategy designed to prevent China’s rise from disrupting the balance of power in the region. As a result,like his predecessors,President Obama has reverted to a hard-edged policy of “strategic hedging” against China.

While “strategic hedging”has broad-based bipartisan support,it is seen as nothing short of containment in Beijing (here we are talking about both the ruling elites and ordinary Chinese people). To make matters worse,Washington’s diplomatic complement to the military “pivot” is to throw its weight behind Chinese neighbours,such as Japan,Vietnam and the Philippines,who are embroiled in bitter territorial disputes with China. The underlying dynamic in US-China relations has become increasingly competitive,if not adversarial.

In this context,perhaps the most critical objective for both Obama and Xi is to reverse this dynamic. As long as Washington and Beijing eye each other through a lens of strategic rivalry,their mutual cooperation on many key issues will be severely limited,even impossible.

But the bedevilling challenge is that,in order to change the optics through which the two countries see each other,they will actually have to try cooperation without strategic trust. In practice,this means that whether Obama and Xi can repair troubled US-China relations depends critically on a set of specific agreements — and both sides’ ability to abide by them — that will be reached during the California summit.

From the American perspective,topping their wishlist would be an agreement on Chinese cyber espionage targeting American companies and government agencies. Even though it is unclear how much China,in particular its military,has benefited from systematic cyber-attacks against US targets,this issue has attracted enormous political attention in the US and severely damaged China’s standing. National security hawks in Washington are demanding serious retaliations against China. China’s traditional allies — American businesses — are also fuming against Beijing. Although the US has pressed China at high levels on cyber-attacks,the California summit will be the first opportunity for Obama to talk face to face with Xi about this sensitive issue. If Xi wants to demonstrate his authority over the Chinese military and gain some goodwill from Obama,he should commit himself to a set of measures that will,at least,remove this issue from the headlines.

Another key issue will be North Korea. Despite signs of Beijing’s growing frustrations with Pyongyang,Obama will likely seek firmer commitments from Xi that China will apply its influence and leverage more aggressively so that the Kim Jong-un regime does not further escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In the past,Xi’s predecessors were characteristically cagey about their ability to discipline the Kim regime. But Xi,who so far appears to be more authoritative and decisive,will have to deliver real results. Otherwise,he will risk losing credibility.

Aside from these two specific issues,which the US will use to test Xi’s willingness and ability to reset Sino-US relations,the California summit offers a valuable venue for Obama and Xi to engage in extended informal dialogue. They have met only once (a brief meeting in the White House when Xi visited the US in February 2012 as China’s leader-in-waiting). So a two-day summit should give them plenty of time to get to know each other.

It is impossible to predict whether Obama and Xi will announce any agreements publicly (given the sensitivity of Chinese cyber-attacks and North Korea,public agreements are unlikely). But two things are worth watching and can be used to assess whether the summit is a success. First,we need to see whether there is a press conference following the summit and watch the body language of both leaders. Xi’s predecessors never performed well under such circumstances. If he does better,it may tell us that his meetings with Obama have gone well.

Second,we should see whether Xi extends an invitation for Obama to visit China. If the summit produces an announcement that Obama will go to China for his second state visit,that will,in itself,be proof that the California summit is not another wasted opportunity for shoring up a troubled,albeit vital,US-China relationship.

The writer is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College,US,and non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US

express@expressindia.com

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