Opinion Bihar’s national poll

In a crass political sense,it has suffered somewhat from the division a decade ago. It slipped from being India’s second largest state to the fifth. And while Uttar Pradesh is meant to be the big prize,with everyone gearing up to Mission 2012,Bihar is the intriguing election this year,promising to be as full of surprises,if not more,than its neighbour.

UP has seen the battlelines clearly drawn — with everyone dead set against everyone else presently,after an intense period of all parties attempting to cosy up to several players on the ground. But Bihar appears to be at a different,more complicated stage.

The ruling combine,with JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar at the helm,has done well for itself. The ratings by both economists and those living there suggest optimism,roads being built,school enrolment rates improving dramatically,crime on the decline — all this in the context of Bihar’s growth rate in the 2004-09 period making it one of India’s three fastest growing states.

Lalu Prasad,having revolutionised and shaken up feudal Bihar 21 years ago by endowing the state’s depressed groups with a sense of “izzat” and empowerment,is facing the gravest challenge of his career so far. His supporters argue that “a Nitish would not have been possible but for Lalu”. Now Biharis are asking for “izzat-plus”,as it were. Nitish,a “backward” himself but powered so far by an incredible upper-caste consolidation and the BJP,has been careful to focus on backwards and Muslims,thus making the battle even more interesting to watch.

But Bihar’s politics is currently playing out beyond its borders. The “Bihari”,with his enterprise and proclivity to travel,has made his presence felt in metros and is influencing politics nationally. The most recent bout of migrant vote politics,which had a heady mix of filmstars,politicians and thugs in Mumbai,also bore the imprint of Bihar politics.

There was much surprise at the BJP’s decision to dissociate with the Shiv Sena and back the migrants. A significant part of the reason might be the new BJP president’s well-known desire to emerge from the shadows of the Sena. Also,divisions on the basis of language and that too an anti-Hindi platform don’t go down well with the traditional positioning of the BJP,which has been a Hindi heartland party essentially. But a large part of the reason lies in the RSS/ BJP realising the increased stakes in the Hindi heartland,given the electoral drought they have been facing at all levels of UP elections over the past four years. The spectre of the Congress slowly inching in to clinch what seemed a distant dream just a year ago may well have prompted the BJP decision to bat for the Hindi-speaking migrant.

The BJP is in power in Bihar,and does not wish to give its alliance partner,the JD(U),the slightest excuse to slip away and look for options. After the sense that in UP the upper castes,a significant component of the BJP’s traditional vote base,had drifted to the Congress,it’s not the season to experiment. The Congress,despite strong emotional calls made by Lalu to its leadership,has resisted furthering the association,and therefore hopes to gain a big chunk of upper caste vote. This is in addition to of course Muslims and non-Yadav backwards,who are now weighing their options,and

not just being pushed into a corner to vote for the one winnable non-BJP front.

It’s a challenge for both national parties,the Congress and the BJP. And the Congress too did not shy away from batting on the frontfoot. Rahul Gandhi made a very visible journey to Patna,he made a strong pitch that migrants are as Indian as anyone else,and then travelled in Mumbai on a local train to further drive home that very global point.

If the challenge for the BJP is to hold on to a crucial section of its voters,for the Congress more perhaps hinges on it,as they need to appear “winnable” and not just spoilers. It sounds circular,but more votes would follow only if it gets more votes,and appears to be “in the fight” — the challenge is also greater as it strives to get away from the RJD,which rose from its ashes.

The Bihar factor this year is also about how the language of politics is changing. And it is not as if just roads and growth rates can be put on the election pamphlet. The challenge for even Nitish Kumar (otherwise feted as a performer) is to articulate what he stands for,and not just in statistical terms. With Bihar representing the most sophisticated form of caste loyalties based not on personal but political choices,it’s a tricky situation for the chief minister to navigate. In the local elections late last year,he got a taste of that when suspicions about his intention to “reform” land entitlements resulted in a poor show,with his considerable landed support base simply disappearing.

Though it is too early to tell,choices that Bihar makes will also help politicians articulate what they wish to stand for nationally. With the big fulcrums of politics in the past 20 years toppled,at least for now,the new mantras seem to be alleviating municipal woes,social divides and oppression. But these are yet to be robustly presented by any formation.

Bihar has always been ahead of the times by signalling its sense of the new politics (whether in the ’70s,1989,2004 or in 2006). This year will be an interesting one.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com