Opinion An offer you cant refuse
Democracies have no space for blackmail. But who will tell the Maoists?
As most rural parts of Nepal will be busy harvesting paddy crops,the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) will be spearheading what it calls the decisive third peoples revolt to capture power in Kathmandu. Soon after CPN-M Chief Prachandas return from his weeklong visit to China,the party set a November 1 deadline,to launch the revolt that aims to establish itself as the sole controller of power.
The Maoists have put forward clear pre-conditions should government and the parties opposed want to avoid such a revolt. First,Prime Minister Madhav Nepal,who they have declared a puppet of foreign lords,should quit. Second,President Rambaran Yadav should either publicly admit he was wrong in reinstating the army chief,sacked by Prachanda in his capacity as the prime minister in May,or the House should debate that move in a manner the Maoists want.
But the Maoists have thus far refused to accept most other parties advice that if at all they are keen on debating the Presidents act,they must bring forward an impeachment motion.
As Nepals unique parliamentary practice envisages an ideal atmosphere in the House any obstruction or slogan shouting by members individually or in group lead to adjournments Maoists have stalled its proceedings for the past three months. The government has not been able to have its budget passed because of such obstruction and now has less than two weeks time.
The consequence are obvious. In fact,Maoists have moved smartly in the past five months after Prachandas resignation as prime minister. Driving away a puppet prime minister from power is part of a move to establish what they call nationalism. At the same time,Maoists have been able to project President Yadav as a dictator who went against a popularly elected government over the army chief reinstatement issue. They insist that the presidents act must be reversed if the principle of civilian supremacy is to be honoured.
Prachanda has kept what transpired during his brief meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao a secret,but given Chinas search for a short term and long term partner or ally in Nepal,it will be safe to assume that Maoists are top on its list. But with Maoists unable to define clearly whether they are a rebel party or part of the mainstream,it will be difficult for China to define the nature of the relationship. China has been telling Maoists that a long power vacuum left by the abolition of the monarchy could have dangerous consequences for Nepal.
That is being seen as a suggestion that if the Maoists cannot take over power immediately,they should not be the cause for destabilising the country. So Maoists seem to be in hurry to takeover power,even if through terror.
But the Maoists will still attempt to muster together the support of 301 members in the House of 601,to legitimately form the government. Alternatively,they have also sounded out Jhalnath Khanal,a pro-Maoist leader and Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),that he would be acceptable as prime minister in place of Madhav Nepal,provided he condemned President Yadavs action.
The Maoists successful revolt hinges on many factors and many are positive. First,pro-democracy forces are split. Madhav Nepal is weak and at loggerheads with some of his own party ministers including Defense Minister Bidhya Bhandari. On the other hand, PM Nepal is fast becoming unpopular in the eyes of the Nepal army which lacks arms and ammunitions. India has conveyed several times in the past year that it is willing to resume the supply of non-lethal arms and ammunitions,should the Nepal government make a formal
request. But the prime minister,under pressure from the Maoists,and the United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) has avoided such a request.
A demoralised army that remains confined to the barracks because of peace agreement and a divided political spectrum,provide an ideal situation for the Maoists.
yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com
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