Wise men on the move

If they hold together, and get public response, they have the potential to become the pivot for the revival of the Third Force, outside the Congress and the BJP, and that third force could become the first force at the time of the next elections. West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu has already stated as much.

Their credibility however will depend on whether or not they are prepared to declare that they will not hold any office in the future. All of them have held the highest office in the land and do not need to aspire for it again. Though everything is possible in Indian politics, the chances of any of them making it again to the top position are highly remote. Th-ough V.P. Singh has ended his self-imposed political sa-nyas, and there are doubts about what he is about, he does not have the health to be able to take the rigours of an executive role.

In any case, new forces have come to the fore in the last ten years, be it Mulayam Singh Yadav or Laloo Yadav or Ram Vilas Paswan or George Fernandes or Chandrababu Naidu. The former prime ministers can however come to play the role of kingmakers, and exercise a check on rajshakti

The BJP has reached a plateau. And as long as Atal Behari Vajpayee is there at the helm, the chances are that the NDA will hold together. But contradictions between the party and its allies in the NDA are sharpening. Whether it is the Trinamool Congress, Samata, TDP or the DMK, they do not lose an opportunity to demonstrate their identity independent of the BJP. The more the assertion by the RSS in the months to come acirc;euro;ldquo;this is inevitable with the elevation of K.S. Sudershan as chief even though the RSS will not rock the Vajpayee boat acirc;euro;ldquo; the greater will be the counter-reaction from the allies.

The Congress which should have been the natural and main benefici-ary of the declining fortunes of the NDA and the growing discontent in the country, is somehow not able to take advantage of the situation. Sonia Gandhi8217;s inability to influence voters which was reflected in the party8217;s lowest ever tally of 112, her lack of experience and unfamiliarity with politics evident in the way she distributed the Rajya Sabha tickets, may bring about a situation where the Congress starts to erode at the peripheries and its ground support shifts to other parties.

In such a scenario the forces outside the two mainstream parties could eme-rge as clear beneficiaries. Their strength has not dwindled and they constitute just under fifty percent of the members in the 13th Lok Sabha. It is this group which provides the catchment area for the Third Force. Today it is divided into a large number of regional parties, besides the Left outfits, many of which are aligned with the BJP, the RJD with the Congress, and the rest unattached.

There are differences between the four ex-PMs, mainly of emphasis, for instance on how much to attack the BJP, though all of them are opponents of the BJP. They are also aware that a virulent anti-Congressism of the Eighties brought the BJP to power. They may be wary of a rhetoric which could go to help the Congress. It is this dil-emma which made their 11-point st-atement rather flat. But they are lining up meetings in Ghaziabad, Agra, Calcutta, Bhopal and Kochi in the next couple of months.

In 1977 Jayaprakash Narayan was the catalyst for bringing together the non-Congress parties under one umbrella. In 1989, the Janata Dal became the centrepiece of the National Front. In 1996, the United Front was more an accident.It was a post-poll development facilitated by the Congress dissidents determined to prevent P.V. Narasimha Rao from becoming prime minister again. But it became possible only because there were the numbers to cobble together a front. Today, a presidium of former prime ministers could become a catalyst if they move around the country together, spe-aking like elder statesmen.They could alter the agenda of all parties.