Why Buddha still smiles

Despite the September 16 by-poll results, Congress cannot play along with Mamata8217;s idea of an anti-CPM grand alliance

The results of the September 16 byelections to one assembly and three Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal have suddenly boosted the hopes of those in the Opposition who have been dreaming of a mahajot or grand alliance to oust the ruling Left Front from its unbroken 29-year rule. On the face of it, it looks like there is a status quo. Each party 8212; the Congress, Trinamool Congress and the Left 8212; has held on to its seats. But if one looks closer at the results, there are dangerous portents for the ruling Left.

In the run-up to the May-June Assembly elections this year, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee had proposed a mahajot of the Congress and her party to fight the CPIM. But the Congress set a condition: quit the NDA. Evidently, the Congress could not be seen to link hands with any partner of the BJP, its main opponent at the national level. Mamata refused to do so.

Internally, the Congress was relieved 8212; with the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre dependent on the support of the CPIM, it could hardly put up a robust fight against the Marxists in West Bengal. Eventually this dichotomy showed up in the assembly election results, where the Left was surprised by its huge victory 235 seats out of 294. An analysis of the results later showed that the Left had won in at least 80 seats because of a division of votes.

However, a fortnight before the byelections, Mamata again proposed a mahajot and supported the Congress in Malda even though her ally, BJP, had put up a candidate. This time, the Congress did not set any conditions. Contrary to the usual trend of the ruling party having an advantage in by-elections, the CPIM, the largest force in the Left Front, failed to wrest the Malda Lok Sabha seat from the Congress or to make any impact in the marginal Bongaon Assembly seat, where the Trinamool Congress increased its vote share. As expected, the CPIM retained the Purulia and Katwa Lok Sabha seats, both strongholds.

For the CPIM, the Malda defeat was the most disappointing. The party had reckoned that the Congress would fade without its legendary leader A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhuri, who ruled the belt till his death earlier this year. Its second calculation was that the Congress and Trinamool vote would be split in a tripartite contest, giving the CPIM the edge. On the basis of these calculations, the CPIM put up party stalwart Sailen Sarkar, the parliamentary affairs minister in the current ministry, for the Malda seat. The Congress put up Ghani Khan8217;s brother, A.H. Khan Choudhuri.

Sarkar lost and Choudhuri won the seat by a margin of 83,391 votes. In fact, the brother got 2 per cent votes more than what Ghani Khan himself had bagged in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

The CPIM scrambled to read the fine print. Its discovery: Ghani8217;s name still commands loyalty in Malda. More importantly, and alarmingly, the numbers show that a chunk of Trinamool votes, at least 50,000, went to the Congress. At Bongaon, the TMC increased its margin, with Sougata Roy winning the seat by 5775 votes. The byelection was called following the death of incumbent Bhupen Seth. Seth8217;s margin then was 3465.

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For Mamata, another vindication of her mahajot theory was Congress president Sonia Gandhi8217;s phone call shortly after the byelection results were declared. Certainly, the byelection results have given Mamata a shot in the arm.

But the state8217;s senior Congress and Trinamool leaders point to a fatal weakness in her mahajot formula. As one veteran Congressman, many years senior to Mamata, says: 8220;Do you think Sonia will risk all and allow a mahajot that could see Mamata as CM and herself out of power at the Centre?8221; He pointed to the obvious: the Congress-led UPA government is critically dependent on the support of the Left MPs.

The late Anil Biswas, the CPIM8217;s state secretary and main strategist, had dismissed the talk of a mahajot with a veiled threat. 8220;Let the Congress join a mahajot. We8217;ll show them what we can do.8221;

According to these leaders, a mahajot will never be possible in the state as long as the Congress has to depend on the CPIM to stay in power in Delhi. They point out that an informal mahajot was formed for the byelections and that the strategy was allowed to work only because a victory or loss would not have heralded a power shift in the state.