Whither rain? Crops wither

8216;8216;There is widespread fear that there may be a drought in parts of UP, MP, Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab since most of these geographical zones have had a shortfall of monsoon rain,8217;8217; he said.

At the review meeting, the IMD had informed the minister that 8216;8216;the behavior of the monsoon in the past two weeks has been erratic. During the week ending July 10, weak monsoon conditions prevailed almost over the entire country and out of 36 meteorological divisions, 25 remained practically dry. The cumulative rainfall, from June 1 to July 10, 2002, was also deficient in 20 met divisions, covering the states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, AP, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Arunachal Pradesh.8217;8217;

Though the ministry of agriculture is 8216;8216;worried8217;8217;, the officials say beyond 8216;8216;reviewing the situation8217;8217; and 8216;8216;giving technical help8217;8217;, there is little they can do. Also, the real panic will set in only after another 10 days.

At the review meeting, it was found that oilseeds 8212; soyabean and coarse grain, particularly jowar 8212; have been irretrievably hit. It is too late for these more sensitive crops to be re-sown, and initial estimates point to 40 per cent of the soyabean crop in MP being damaged. MP agriculture minister Mahendra Singh put the damage at a steep 90 per cent. The country produces 60 lakh tonnes of soyabean and imports 40 lakhs annually.

8216;8216;The price however may not go up. Since we import such a large quantity, prices are dictated more by the international market,8217;8217; said a senior official at the ministry.

Rice, though initially the primary cause for worry, may not be that bad as most varieties like basmati can be planted as late as middle of August. Also, most rice growing-areas have good irrigation support.

Contrary to popular belief that oilseeds do not require much water, they are mainly grown in rainfed areas, making them vulnerable to vagaries of the monsoon.

And Singh himself acknowledged that even if the rains arrived now, it could be too late for the pearl millet-growing areas of Rajasthan. G G Singh, agriculture minister of Rajasthan, agreed with this assessment, saying 8216;8216;the spectre of drought is looming large over our heads.8217;8217;

In terms of an action plan, the Ministry has appointed area officers who are joint secretaries in-charge of particular states. When it was pointed out to the minister that this did not seem adequate, particularly since the window of opportunity to prepare for an ensuing drought was merely the next 15 days, Singh said beyond that 8216;8216;only prayers can offer a solution8217;8217;.

The contingency plans of the states are mostly alternate cropping strategies. For example, MP would plant pulses and jowar instead of soyabean; UP would plant Tonia, another oilseed; Rajasthan would plant guar and moth; and Chhattisgarh would turn to pulses.

The Centre will also ensure that states get assured supply of seeds of alternate crops, fertilisers and technical assistance on efficient water management strategies. The states will promise the affected farmers assured supply of diesel and power. Damaged tubewells will be repaired on priority. Fodder will be provided to farmers in Rajasthan.

The minister hinted that there would be better facilities for credit and crop insurance. The Centre has also asked these states to defer collection of loans and taxes.

All states have money available to them under the states disaster relief under the 11th Finance Commission. It is a cumulative fund that collects each year irrespective of whether states need it or not. Once, they exhaust this, the states can then ask for help from the central contingency fund.

The states can only declare their districts drought-prone if rains do not arrive by July 31. And unless they are declared drought-prone, they cannot avail of any financial assistance from the Centre.