Shifting sands

Whether or not whats happening in the streets of Arabia turns out to be its 1989 moment,its clear that this is a post-American turmoil. The US,which Arab nations like Egypt and Jordan count as an ally,has never seemed so helpless. However,this can be no more than one catalyst among many,starting with the dictatorial politics of much of the Arab world where corruption,rising prices and expectations of an Internet-savvy younger generation were bound to breach the dikes sooner or later. Maybe it had to come at this moment,after wasted decades of popular failure to get a grip on government. The Arab street has been getting steadily angrier for almost 30 years,and finally that anger ventless and fearful till now is spilling on to the closely guarded public space.

When the Tunisian uprising ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali,the question of a domino effect across the Arab Middle East and Africa had still seemed premature. Now,however,the domino effect seems to be here,with even Libyas Muammar Gadaffi the regions longest-serving ruler and the strictest prohibiter of protest sounding nervous. Egypt most closely resembles Tunisia a faltering economy,official corruption,an ageing ruler with an old monopoly on power. The numbers clashing with the police havent been seen since the 1970s bread riots. Yemen,the most impoverished Arab nation,is of course the basket case of the Arabian Peninsula. However,in resource-rich Algeria,opposition activity had gained strength from the loosening of the political system.

Right now,the protests seem spontaneous and centre-less. Much of the Arab world is indeed either undemocratic or insufficiently democratic. But an eye must be kept on the hint of uncontrollable spirals. If people secure for themselves a better life and responsible governance,no one will complain. However,any uprising is attractive in its nascent stage. Its when patterns of interest begin to be imposed on them that real questions and real dangers arise.