Securing Kabul

That elections are being held in Afghanistan today is perhaps more important than their outcome. To be sure,these are not the first elections there since the Talibans ouster at the end of 2001. There were presidential elections in 2004 and parliamentary elections in 2005. The radically altered ground situation since then has made the current elections a decisive moment in Afghanistans political evolution. The conduct of the polls will reveal whether Kabuls current regime and the international community can prevent political regression in Afghanistan,stabilise it,and create a reasonable basis for progress in a nation that has seen nothing but war and conflict for more than three decades. The credibility of these elections,in which nearly 17 million voters are expected to choose a president from a slate of four score candidates,is critical for the political future of Afghanistan as well as the security of the subcontinent.

Threatening the current electoral process are the Taliban and its friends the ideological supporters and institutional mentors across the border in Pakistan,especially in the ISI. On the back foot in 2004 and 2005,they could not and did not try to stop the unveiling of an unprecedented democratic process in Afghanistan. Regrouping since 2007 with the help of friendly sanctuaries in Pakistan,cashing in on Kabuls many failures of governance,and out-thinking the military calculus of the US and NATO forces,a resurgent Taliban has promised to disrupt the elections this time round.

If they prevent large numbers of Pashtuns in the south and east from voting and terrorise major cities,the Taliban and its friends will deal a severe blow to the survival of the post-2001 political structures in Afghanistan. If they can rob the elections of their legitimacy,it might not really matter who the winner is whether it is Hamid Karzai,or his nearest rival and former foreign minister,Abdullah Abdullah. The US,which is reassessing the state of military play,is rightly focused on taking special steps to protect the electoral process from the credible threats issued by the Taliban. India,whose stakes in Afghanistan are so high,will hope that the Taliban will not be allowed to prevail this week; but if they do gain an upper hand,New Delhi must be prepared for a radical overhaul of its strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.