Saffron challenge from MNS,secular from BSP

The MNS is the youngest party established three years ago to enter the Lok Sabha election fray in the state. It is contesting from 12 constituencies,where it has considerable influence: all six seats in Mumbai,three in Thane district,Nashik city,Pune city,and Aurangabad city. Its leaders insist they are more than spoilers. It is a democracy and we have the right to contest elections, MNS general secretary Shirish Parkar said. Is there a monopoly of some parties over elections?

The entry of the MNS has jolted the saffron front,especially the Shiv Sena,which had no competitor in the past for its agenda centred around Marathi language and culture as well as jobs for the people of Maharashtra.

MNS chief Raj Thackerays aggressive political moves on issues such as the display of Marathi signboards and jobs for locals may have earned him notoriety across the nation,but it has also enabled him to win over a section of traditional Shiv Sainiks,especially the younger generation.

When Raj,a nephew of Sena chief Bal Thackeray,formed the MNS in 2006 following a falling out between him and his cousin and Senas executive president Uddhav Thackeray son of Bal Thackeray,he initially thought of rising above the older regional partys traditional agenda of Marathi and Maharashtra by embracing all sections of society. However,when Uddhav started making overtures towards North Indian migrants by offering tax sops to screening of Bhojpuri films through the Sena-ruled Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation BMC,Raj changed his strategy and hijacked the original Sena agenda. The violent agitations that followed on jobs for locals resulted in attacks on migrant jobseekers,catapulting him into the national limelight. At the same time,his vitriolic campaign earned him support among the rising number of jobless youth.

It now appears likely that the MNS will make a dent in the Senas vote-bank in some constituencies. In Mumbai South,Sena MLA Bala Nandgaonkar who quit the Sena before filing his nomination for the Lok Sabha is contesting against sitting Sena MP from the neighbouring Mumbai South-Central constituency Mohan Rawle. Rawle changed his constituency after areas like Byculla,Worli and Sewree were shifted to Mumbai South.

Another constituency in which the MNS could eat into the Senas vote-bank is Nashik,where 12 MNS corporators were elected two years ago. Here,the NCP candidate is OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbals nephew Sameer,against whom local Marathas have teamed up. The Sena nominee is its district chief Datta Gaikwad who is a Maratha and MNS has fielded Hemant Godse,also a Maratha. Gaikwads winning chances are under a cloud because Godse is in the fray the Maratha votes are likely get divided. Bhujbal,meanwhile,is banking on just this factor.

In contrast to modest boundaries the MNS has set for itself,the BSP is contesting 47 of the 48 seats. The exception is Akola,where Prakash Ambedkar is contesting on his own against the Congress.

Mayawatis party is expected to eat into the votes of the secular front in about half-a-dozen seats. The BSP has grown over the years across the state and is likely to act as the spoiler for the Congress-NCP in constituencies like Gadchiroli,Nagpur,Pune,Wardha,Hingoli,Bhandara-Gondia and Mumbai South.

In the last Lok Sabha polls,the BSPs presence in the fray had contributed to the defeat of the NCPs Praful Patel in Bhandara; Congressman Naresh Puglia in Chandrapur; former PCC chief Prabha Rau in Wardha and Sushilkumar Shindes wife Ujwala in Solapur.