Normal monsoon likely this year

The El Nino phenomenon,which is a measure of the difference in the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and known to have a negative bearing on the rainfall,is under neutral conditions and this is likely to continue till most part of the season. Even if El Nino conditions do develop in the latter half of the season,its impact on the rainfall would be minimal.

“The good thing is that there are no extreme indications as of now. There was an initial scare relating to El Nino development but it is under neutral conditions as of now. We will know only later about how the situation develops. In any case,there is no one-on-one correlation between the two even though El Nino does affect the monsoon. As of now,it seems we are headed for a normal monsoon,” a weather scientist said.

The rainfall is classified as ‘normal’ if the rainfall is between 96 and 104 per cent of the average seasonal rainfall. India receives 89cm of rainfall on an average during this four-month period. A good rainfall during this period is absolutely critical for the agricultural output and the prime driver for the economy.

The Met department forecasts are given as a percentage of the average rainfall. The numbers are closely guarded till the formal announcement because of their potential to affect the stock markets.

The preliminary forecast in April is updated in the third week of June when the regional variations and the monthly break-up of expected rainfall is also released.

In between,in May,the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announces the onset date of monsoon in Kerala,the normal date for which is June 1.