In Pakistan8217;s acute power crisis,old mistakes and PM Nawaz Sharif8217;s greatest challenge

Rarely has power as an issue so overwhelmingly dominated a subcontinental election. In its summer of discontent beyond endurance,Pakistan faces an unprecedented crisis of power. Outages last between 12 and 22 hours every day,leading to a spiral of water shortages,crippled transport and hobbling industry.

Finding a solution is widely acknowledged to be Sharifs primary task more important than tackling terror or public outrage over US drone strikes and a challenge that will determine his success or failure as PM.

Bijli is Pakistans greatest luxury. There hasnt been a day when we have had power for more than two hours at a stretch, 60-year-old Barkat Hussain Chowdhary,a kirana merchant in Lahore,told this correspondent on the day Pakistan voted last month.

I havent seen such darkness in this country in all my life. It is hell.

Banker Ali Ziyad 36,said,All Pakistanis understand that total failure of governance has pushed them to this situation. When you suffer 18-hour cuts in your biggest cities every day,it becomes a question of survival.

Many of those who voted PML N spoke about their faith in Sharifs experience,maturity and background as a big industrialist as the solution to the terrible energy crisis. As the caretaker prime minister ordered airconditioners switched off in offices and advised Pakistanis to wear white and avoid socks and shoes,the PML N gave the slogan,Sher ka nishaan,roshan Pakistan The lion symbolises an illuminated Pakistan.

When Sharif was overthrown in 1999,Pakistan had a 1,000-MW power surplus. It now suffers from an estimated shortfall of 3,500-6,000 MW. Michael Kugelman,South Asia expert and co-author of a book on Pakistans energy crisis,estimates that the energy shortages have cost the country up to 4 per cent of GDP over the past few years.

At a national conference organised by the think tank Islamabad Policy Research Institute last month,former power and water secretary Mirza Hamid Hassan blamed poor governance and management,lack of policy,and bad policy choices. Only about 10,658 MW had been generated in 2012,less than half the installed capacity of 22,797 MW.

Till the late 1970s,the share of hydel power in the fuel mix was about 70 per cent, Hassan said. Hydel is much cheaper and helped provide cheap power. But no major hydropower project except Ghazi Barotha was undertaken after that,and reliance on thermal power gradually increased. Now about 67 per cent of our power is coming from thermal sources,which are very expensive.

Among thermal sources,diesel power,Hassan said,is the most expensive,followed by furnace oil and coal. Pakistan produces thermal power mainly from furnace oil. And as the proportion of thermal power gradually increased,the cost for electricity kept on rising.

Both Hassan and Ejaz Ahmad Khan,managing director of the Thar Coal and Energy Board,strongly advocated using coal for power generation,and the need for Pakistan to tap the Thar coal deposits which,at an estimated 187 billion tonnes,are said to be second largest deposites in the world.

Dr Nazir Hussain of the School of Politics and International Relations at Islamabads Quaid-e-Azam University stressed the need to pursue gas pipeline projects,including the Iran-Pakistan project and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India TAPI pipeline.

The TAPI project would help generate 2,000 MW of electricity besides earning transit fee from India. It could become an important economic dynamic for bridging Indo-Pak rivalry, he said.

Hussain also said the proposed underwater Qatar-Pakistan pipeline would help Pakistan be an energy corridor,and put it in a relationship of economic interdependence with India that would be beneficial for both.

Sharifs initial friendliness towards India notwithstanding,Islamabads relationship with New Delhi is linked in a complicated relationship with its energy needs.

There is a strong view in Pakistan that by keeping Kashmir,New Delhi has robbed Islamabad of sources of water for irrigation and hydel power.

On the rise

1952: The first oil field in Pakistan was discovered in Balochistan near a Sui gas field. During the same time period,Sui gas field,which remains the biggest natural gas field in Pakistan,was discovered.

1955: Commercial drilling and exploring of Sui gas fields began.

1964: The Toot Oilfields,located in Pothowar region of Punjab were found. Toot Oilfields have an approximate capacity to produce 60 million barrels of oil.

1986: The year witnessed the peak in oil production from Toot Oilfields,2,400 barrels per day.

1990: Qadirpur,third largest gas field,discovered in Sindh.

2000: Balochistan Liberation Army allegedly bombed one of the minor pipelines transmitting gas from Sui gas fields.

2005: Pakistan was hit by one of its most devastating earthquakes which resulted in vast damage to infrastructural capital responsible for transmitting/transferring fuel.

2007: Pakistan faced one of its biggest power failures after Bhuttos assassination. Production fell by 6,000 MW.

2008: The demand and supply gap pertaining to electricity in Pakistan increased by 15 per cent. Power outages extended up to 16 hours a day in many cities of the country.

2009: Country faced power shortfall of 4,500 MW with demand rising up to 11,000 MW.

2010: Torrential rainfall resulted in floods which caused damage to existing infrastructure transmitting/transferring energy and fuel.

2011: Uch plant,producing 585 MW,was shut down. A most crucial gas crisis,with shortfall rising up to 1.8 billion cubic feet.

Energy emergency

Pakistan is currently facing a massive energy emergency and is looking at all available resources to solve the crisis. The nation,however,may only have to look within

The price of fuel has risen by

157.6

in the last 10 years

UNTAPPED COAL

Local extraction in 2010 was

3.5 mn tonnes

while unmined coal is 186 bn tonnes

Wind unused

Three wind turbines generate

6 megawatt electricity while Pakistan8217;s daily requirement is 22,000 megawatt

Oil import

The import of oil increased by 12.3 in five years