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This is an archive article published on April 20, 2011
First forecast: it will be normal monsoon
For the second successive year,the country is likely to receive good monsoon rains.
Written by Express News Service
New Delhi | April 20, 2011 12:43 AM IST
2 min read
2 min read
For the second successive year,the country is likely to receive good monsoon rains. The Met Department predicted today that the overall rainfall in the July-September period would be 98 per cent of the average.
India receives an average 89 cm rain in the monsoon season. In its first long-range forecast for this years monsoon,the India Meteorological Department IMD said rainfall for the country as a whole was most likely to be normal. There is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient below 90 per cent of the average or excess above 110 per cent, the IMD said.
The normal range is between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the average. The model error for the forecast is 5 per cent on either side. The forecast will be updated in June,along with a forecast of the regional distribution.
The date of onset of the monsoon in Kerala will be announced next month. The normal date is June 1.
Last year,rainfall was 102 per cent of the average consistent with the forecast but extremely erratic with large regional and periodic variations.
Three of the five predictors considered for the forecast are currently positive for a good monsoon while the other two are neutral,the IMD said.
A minor concern has been the below-normal temperatures in April until now. The heat plays an important role in bringing good precipitation. But as IMD director general Ajit Tyagi said,it is early days yet.
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