Colonels,the general

Noises about a colonels coup in Pakistan may be overstated. But Pakistans army chief,Ashfaq Parvez Kayani,is undoubtedly under pressure from within and without. The arrangement that Kayani had worked out after taking over from Pervez Musharraf in 2007 brought the military power-without-responsibility. Over time,his claims about non-interference with the civilian government were eclipsed by the visible influence Kayani began to exercise. Most importantly,as army chief,Kayani made himself indispensable to the United States in its war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pumping in at least 2 billion a year as military aid,it is that relationship with the US that has now cornered Kayani. The increasingly radicalised,anti-American middle and lower ranks have come out in open criticism of the general,unheard of in as hierarchical an organisation as the Pakistan army,after the May 2 raid that killed Osama bin Laden. So much so,that reports emerged of Kayani having to battle for his survival,as the elite Corps Commanders pressed for a tougher line against the US.

While a colonels coup may yet be unlikely,Kayani finds himself pressed on the one hand by the US,with US-Pakistan ties at their lowest in years. On the other,the ranks and mid-level have turned the heat on. Indeed,with these soldiers deep resentment of fighting who they believe are their fellow Pakistanis and the humiliations of the May 2 raid and the terrorist attack on the PNS Mehran base,Kayani has had to distance himself from Washington. But how far the US is going to let him get away without losing its plot in Af-Pak will determine how secure the disgruntled officers are going to let Kayani feel. Kayani and Pakistan find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Although he manoeuvred regional geopolitics to Pakistans advantage,Delhi knows the game will become much more dangerous if the Pakistan army drops out of the tribal battlegrounds,makes full peace with the militants and concentrates all its attention on its eastern border.

The Pakistani state,along with its army and civilian government,is going to find a means to relieve this pressure. There is too much bearing down on it from every direction,and something is going to give.

Historically,that is how Pakistan has wiggled itself out as,for instance,it did with Musharrafs coup post-Kargil. No matter what happens now,or whether anything happens at all,India must keep its eye firmly on its neighbour,on whose stability it stakes its own peace.