Catching up

Karnatakas electorate confirms that people are ahead of politicians,who must junk their old calculus

Karnatakas electorate confirms that people are ahead of politicians,who must junk their old calculus

There is no uncertainty about the mandate in Karnataka. In a multi-cornered contest,and a seemingly fragmenting polity,in which a significant new party made a much-hyped debut in this election,the winner has been given a clear majority and the outgoing government was unambiguously punished. In its decisive sweep despite the constricted menu of options,the verdict doesnt seem to have turned on any single factor or issue,be it a leader,a caste,or a community. It seems to be made up,instead,of that wider set of variables that add up to what is called governance in this case,bad governance,or even the sheer lack of it,by a faction-ridden BJP squabbling with itself. In its clearheadedness and maturity,the Karnataka verdict doesnt just break through the clutter and instability that has described the states politics since 2004. It may also be part of a heartening new pattern in Indias politics.

The regionalisation of the political contest has been a conspicuous trend for more than two decades now,coming to the fore in the early 1990s after the formal collapse of the Congress-dominance system. In many states,especially in the countrys north,this inaugurated a period of intense churning and fractured verdicts. That phase seems to be drawing to a close now. Voters,even in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar,are increasingly giving clear and decisive mandates to rule. Another related trend has firmed up in the 2000s: the rote anti-incumbency that had become a predictable feature of state-level politics,also in the 1990s,is fading. There is a general decline of the incumbency disadvantage as more and more incumbent governments are being voted back to power when they are seen to have delivered. This is the context for the result in Karnataka.

It would be unwise,if not plain wrong and self-serving,for the BJP to blame its comprehensive drubbing on the iron law of anti-incumbency or on its estranged leader B.S. Yeddyurappa. A decisive swing away from the party like the one framed by the Karnataka results could not have come about because of a mechanical voter reflex,a division of the Lingayat vote,or even a single issue like corruption. The BJP must face it: it lost its first government in a southern state because of the many real and perceived failures of governance in the last five years,when its government seemed far too preoccupied with itself and unmindful of the people.