
While announcing the list of 73 candidates for the first phase of Assembly elections in Gujarat, the BJP denied renominations to 11 sitting MLAs. The move is in keeping with the findings of The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Diya Bhaskar-CSDS pre-poll survey, which revealed public8217;s dissatisfaction with the sitting BJP MLAs.
The BJP has been in power in the state for the past 10 years, having won a majority of seats during the Assembly elections in 1998 and 2002. In 1998, the party won 117 seats, polling 44.81 per cent votes, and in 2002 too, it registered a convincing win. Today, the BJP has 127 sitting MLAs, while the Congress has only 51.
What seems to be the party8217;s strength8212;the survey showed the BJP leading with five per cent edge over the Congress8212;may work against it if it decides to field a large number of sitting MLAs. While the survey8217;s small sample size does not permit constituency-wise analysis of the level of satisfaction/ dissatisfaction with individual MLAs across the parties, the survey indicates greater dissatisfaction with the BJP MLAs compared to those of the Congress.
The BJP, it seems, is prepared to take corrective steps by denying tickets to the sitting MLAs, but whether it will be enough to counter the party8217;s declining support remains to be seen. The denial of tickets is also likely to spark rebellion within the party, with half of those who have been refused tickets announcing their decision to contest as Independents or as candidates of Uma Bharati8217;s Bharatiya Janshakti Party. Many of them may not win on their own strength, but can be instrumental in defeating the BJP candidates. Either way, the BJP is in for surprises8212;not all of them pleasant.