In February 2021, a video featuring a fitness instructor in Myanmar’s capital, Naypyitaw, went viral not because of the woman’s energetic moves, but because of its background. It had black armoured cars making their way to the Parliament, and inadvertently, the woman had filmed the beginning of a coup.
For the first time since that coup, which marked the end of a short-lived democratic rule, the country will hold elections beginning Sunday (December 28). However, rather than being interpreted as a sign of a return to normalcy, several international observers have said that the polls will not be free and fair.
The United Nations has noted that “more than 30,000 political opponents — including members of the democratically elected government and political representatives — have been detained” since 2021. Some of its representatives have even termed the polls a “sham”.
The upheaval has directly impacted India’s northeast region and allowed China to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia. Ahead of the polls, here is what to know about the situation in the country, what led to it, and what the current military leadership may be aiming for with the upcoming elections.
What was the background of the 2021 Myanmar coup?
Myanmar witnessed several periods of political instability after its independence from British colonial rule in 1948. In 1962, the democratic government was replaced by military rule.
The year 2011 marked a major shift, with the military gradually allowing for a transition to a military-dominant civilian parliament. The think tank Council on Foreign Affairs wrote that former army bureaucrat Thein Sein was appointed President, and he “spearheaded some reforms”, including relaxing media censorship and encouraging foreign investment.
This paved the way for Aung San Suu Kyi, who leads the National League for Democracy (NLD), to emerge as a prime contender for political leadership. Though she was under house arrest from 1989 to 2010, she was championed as an advocate of peace and democracy abroad, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
Aung San Suu Kyi during a 2012 election campaign. (Wikimedia Commons)
In 2015, general elections were held with NLD and the military’s proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), as the main parties in the fray. The NLD comfortably won. However, her rule in power was seen as disappointing by many observers who once applauded her, following the 2017 outbreak of violence against the minority Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine state (bordering Bangladesh).
A BBC report noted, “A few initially argued that she was a pragmatic politician, trying to govern a multi-ethnic country with a complex history. But her personal defence of the army’s actions… was seen as a new turning point for her international reputation. At home, however, “the Lady”, as Ms Suu Kyi is known, remains wildly popular among the Buddhist majority who hold little sympathy for the Rohingya”.
This was reflected in the 2020 elections, which the NLD won, but the military alleged they were rigged to justify the 2021 coup. Their implicit concerns, however, were about the NLD potentially changing the Constitution. Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders were jailed, and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing assumed power.
What is the current situation in Myanmar?
The coup did not result in a total acceptance of the new military junta, officially named the State Administration Council. Several resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces) sprang up, and numerous other ethnic groups that were separately demanding autonomy or statehood also joined them.
The instability, in addition to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, reversed many of the economic and institution-building gains made in the decade before the coup. Today, the regime controls only around 20% of the total territory, and the election will not be held in all constituencies. However, there is also a lack of unity among the rebel groups.
Further, voters will only be able to choose among military-approved parties (the NLD was not allowed to register), and results will be declared by the end of January 2026. Thus, more than a transition, the election is being interpreted as the military’s attempt to legitimise its dwindling control in Myanmar.
What is the relevance of these events for India and the region?
Northeast India has been directly impacted by the events in Myanmar, with refugees fleeing the violence and arriving in the bordering states of Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. Many of them have cultural ties across the border.
However, continued immigration could impact the demographics of a region where immigration and its relation to tribal, regional and religious identities is already a hot-button issue. In July this year, The Indian Express reported that around 4,000 new refugees entered Mizoram within a few days, following a renewed outbreak of fighting between two anti-junta groups in the Chin State of Myanmar.
Additionally, India is also dealing with the smuggling of opium from Myanmar. Illicit drugs were a problem area even before the civil war, in what is called the Golden Triangle region — where the borders of Myanmar, Laos and Thailand meet. Methamphetamine (also called meth), in particular, is increasingly being produced, of late.
Amid the lawlessness, scam centres have also proliferated in the country, with many Indians being lured by fake promises of jobs, and then getting trapped and forced to carry out online fraud.
China, which shares a long border with Myanmar, is also a significant player in this region. An article in Foreign Affairs recently noted that its strategy has been multifaceted: “China… has cultivated direct ties to both the military junta and the most capable armed organizations around the country. This strategy of befriending all sides serves important Chinese material goals: securing access to Myanmar’s deposits of critical minerals and routes overland to the Indian Ocean.”
It added, “In 2023, Myanmar became China’s largest external supplier of heavy rare earths… key components in electric vehicles, defense systems, and advanced electronics.” China has also attempted to play the role of a mediator by having some rebel groups and the junta agree to a ceasefire, and it has supported the upcoming polls.
Voters line up to cast their ballots at a polling station in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025. (AP Photo) 
Aung San Suu Kyi during a 2012 election campaign. (Wikimedia Commons)
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