Washington gets wise

US Secretary of State Colin Powell8217;s visit to the subcontinent last weekend seems to have indicated some important shifts in US positio...

US Secretary of State Colin Powell8217;s visit to the subcontinent last weekend seems to have indicated some important shifts in US positions. His plain speaking actually endorses the Indian position in the essential areas.

The substantive issue was his prompt contradiction of General Musharraf8217;s claim that infiltration across the border 8216;was not taking place now8217;. Powell did not accept this position and categorically stated that while he was not in a position to provide precise information, 8216;it seems clear from the information that I have that infiltration is continuing8217;.

His public reminder to General Musharraf that he 8216;has pledged that he would end it, and would end it on a permanent basis8217; was important so that free and fair elections in J038;K scheduled in a few weeks could be held. To this has been added a critical demand by the US 8212; that Pakistan ensure 8216;every effort8217; is made to avoid 8216;destabilising8217; the Kashmir elections.

This would also mean that Pakistan does not encourage the Hurriyat to stay away from the election process.

The US has been insisting on a early bilateral dialogue mostly as a concession to General Musharraf. But Colin Powell has conceded the Indian view that the environment is not conducive at this time for a dialogue with Pakistan, and that Pakistan must stop destabilising the democratic process.

But, as he acknowledged, elections are not an end in itself, but the means to open the way to a broader process toward peace and stability. In turn this should also lead to the resumption of a bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan to cover all outstanding issues. We should not have any problem with that.

After all, it was Pakistan that had destroyed the process of dialogue by opting to launch a military aggression in Kargil. Similarly, infiltration is only one of the means and not an end in itself. Everyone knows that elections cannot be free as long as the threat of terrorist violence continues.

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To that extent, therefore, the focus on infiltration appears to have acquired somewhat excessive importance. We should not be carried away by promises and endorsements of such promises to end infiltration from Pakistan. There will never be an empirical method of assessing infiltration levels, especially that taking place during the hours of darkness or in poor visibility in rain and snow.

What is needed clearly is the end to terrorism promoted directly as well as indirectly. And this can obviously be judged more accurately.

The criteria for what could lead to peaceful elections should be the drop in the level of terrorist violence in the state. Only if it comes down in a sustained manner to less than half of that experienced during last year can one claim with any confidence that terrorism has come down.