Vajpayee146;s pre-emptive dream

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee may not like to be called a 8220;sapnon ka saudagar8221; but no leader is worth his salt if he cannot ...

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee may not like to be called a 8220;sapnon ka saudagar8221; but no leader is worth his salt if he cannot dream dreams. For all his realpolitik, Vajpayee has nursed the dream of being remembered by history as a man who did something new on Kashmir. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Shyama Prasad Mukherji was his mentor and Vajpayee was with him when he died in Kashmir.

The prime minister8217;s latest offer of friendship to Pakistan is a mix of dream and reality. The idea is clearly his brainchild. When he first mooted it in Srinagar, both the MEA and his own party were stunned. Holding out an olive branch to Pakistan had not figured at any of the pre-visit briefings, though peace in Kashmir was discussed.

Whether it was an offer made under American pressure or a preemptive strike to ward off pressure, clearly Vajpayee, with his 50 years in public life, could sense the new America that has emerged after Iraq 8212; a nation dismissive of multilateralism and not shy about the military dimension in its pursuit of a US-based world order. One, moreover, that had threatened to turn its attention to Kashmir.

The PM chose the place and time. By making the offer in Srinagar, he took the 8220;healing touch8221; process a step forward. From all accounts, it has gone down well in the Valley. It came in the wake of N.N. Vohra8217;s appointment as the government8217;s chief interlocuter to talk to all the groups in the state.

The timing of the announcement will also stand him in good stead when he meets world leaders in St Petersburgh or in Paris in the coming weeks. The world community has already hailed Vajpayee8217;s move.

The PM has killed many birds with one stone and it will have its fallout on domestic politics. Vajpayee8217;s offer may premptively help defuse the tensions that might be building up in the Muslim community in India. The Muslims have tended to view the Iraq war as an assault on their religion.

The abating of tension between India and Pakistan is bound to ease the situation for Muslims, not because Muslims in India are pro-Pakistan. The reality is that the greater the tension with Pakistan, the more they are viewed with suspicion. The more the amity between New Delhi and Islamabad, the easier the situation is for them. At the end of the day, any ruler in Delhi, Congress or BJP, can ill afford to ignore the concerns of 150 million people 8212; the second largest block of Muslims in the world.

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In the past, the minorities have made a distinction between Vajpayee and the party he belongs to, though this has changed after Gujarat. If Vajpayee8217;s latest initiative begins to show some results, the Muslims may look at him with new eyes again. They may not vote for the BJP 8212; it will take a long time for the Muslims to trust the party 8212; but it would reinforce his position and increase the clamour of the allies that he lead the NDA into elections again. There was never really any challenge to Vajpayee but there was speculation after Gujarat over who would lead the BJP in 2004.

Vajpayee8217;s latest initiative will have a bearing on the BJP8217;s electoral fortunes. Once the thaw starts with Pakistan, national security will cease to be an emotive issue. This worries the BJP. How will it justify the u-turn after the post-December 13 hype, the nine-month long troop movement on the border, coercive diplomacy, hard words on Pakistan? Narendra Modi won the elections in Gujarat as much by baiting 8220;Mian Musharraf8221; as anything else.

The toning down of Hindutva has been going on since the Gujarat elections. The zing has gone out of Togadia8217;s trishul programme, the temple issue has cooled off with excavation going on at the disputed site in Ayodhya under the court8217;s aegis, and after due deliberations, the party decided to make development and governance its main slogans in the forthcoming elections in the Hindi heartland.

With the BJP at the receiving end, these will hardly be the issues for the party to flog in 2004. Vajpayee may hope that the 8216;Befriend Pak8217; and 8216;Solve Kashmir8217; cards will yield political dividends by then with the middle class. That will facilitate the reassertion of the Vajpayee line in the BJP.

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Unlike many in his party or in the foreign office, Vajpayee may still hope for a breakthrough with Pakistan, despite Lahore, Kargil and Agra, which hardened public opinion. Unlike many in his party, he can get away with his balancing act with his jugglery with words. He can claim that he did not accept the Pakistan premier8217;s invitation and yet let it be known that the offer was not rejected because there was no real invitation on the table.

Hopefully, lessons will have been learnt and there will be more preparatory work done this time. For all the hurdles that may lie on the road ahead, for the moment, Atal Bihari Vajpayee has seized the opportunity inherent in the new situation and made a virtue of a necessity.