Unravelling Front

It is logical for G.K. Moopanar to explore the possibility of returning to the Congress and for the latter to welcome him. A reunion has alw...

It is logical for G.K. Moopanar to explore the possibility of returning to the Congress and for the latter to welcome him. A reunion has always been on the cards and would benefit both. This is made obvious by the punishment both sides received in the Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress came away empty handed from Tamil Nadu and the TMC was reduced to three seats. Joining forces is the only way of improving their future prospects in a State remarkable for the clear demarcation between its political choices at local and national levels. During the two years of its existence, the Tamil Maanila Congress has remained what it was at the start, a Congress splinter temporarily alienated from the mother party because of Narasimha Rao8217;s ill-judged alliance with the AIADMK. Notwithstanding theories about genuine federalism which served to justify its participation in the United Front government, the TMC seems ready to concede its natural home is in the Congress and its natural stance in Tamil Nadu is that of a nationalparty. One immediate benefit would be freeing itself of the contradictions in its close relationship with the DMK. For the Congress, Moopanar8217;s return would give it the opportunity to rebuild itself in Tamil Nadu around an able and still popular leader.

With the TMC drifting back to the Congress, the United Front8217;s existential dilemma is a little clearer. The UF proved a safe haven for regional or quasi-regional parties only as long as it could offer a viable alternative to the Congress and the BJP, and not because of shared economic, social or political values. Without a strong Janata Dal at the core there cannot be a third force with its aggregation of regional parties. The Telugu Desam Party, the National Conference and the Asom Gana Parishad, left to weigh their options between the Congress and the BJP, have chosen courses from overt to tacit support for the BJP based on what they calculate is the lesser of two evils for the time being. Only the DMK remains. Further unravelling of the UF will follow ifthe Left Front moves closer, as it seems inclined, to the Congress.

However, the process of polarisation between the two national parties still has a long way to go if it is ever to come about. Regional parties which are proving durable, having grown in number and strength with each election, will limit the reach of the national parties. UP and Bihar continue to provide significant political space for the 8220;social justice8221; parties, Mulayam Singh Yadav8217;s SP, Laloo Prasad8217;s RJD and the BSP. The apparent easing of hostilities between these formations and the rump of the Janata Dal, as seen in Parliament and during the repolling in Patna, is not much to go by. But sheer survival may compel the leaders to put their egos aside and try to revive the Janata Dal experiment.

What Malayam Singh at least still seems to recognise is that the third force will not be dead until it is buried. Its original purpose of offering a secular democratic alternative to the politics of Hindutva and the dynasty-prone Congressstands. It looks like an impossible task but the Janata Dal has no other choice than to try and put Humpty-Dumpty together again.