The spin-off effect

Bombs have incessantly rained on Iraq. The country is destroyed. Its people are devastated. Nobody can feel the intensity of the trauma tha...

Bombs have incessantly rained on Iraq. The country is destroyed. Its people are devastated. Nobody can feel the intensity of the trauma that the Iraqi civilian populace has been through for no fault of theirs, except that they were Iraqis caught between their autocratic, adamant President and an arrogant and equally adamant superpower.

However, some small consolation may be drawn from the fact that the war on Iraq shall also severely impact the fragile structure of international relations. Many others, and not just the Iraqis, shall be left picking the pieces.

For one, it is going to get countries that see themselves on the wrong side of the US to immediately sit up and take stock of their security. The message that is most likely being assimilated in Tehran, Damascus and Triploi, besides other national capitals, is that the acquisition of nuclear weapons is no longer a luxury but a necessity that must be quickly realised.

The word going around, then, is that nuclear deterrence does guarantee security. And once the resolve is made, surely, countries like North Korea would be more than willing to lend a helping hand.

A second trend that the Iraq war could make fashionable is that of pre-emptive strikes. Thus, certain defence analysts in India are goading the government to initiate surgical military pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan. Japan too is rather uncharacteristically talking of similar military action against North Korea.

Naturally, these doctrinal changes will impact behavioural patterns. It would result in an upsurge in arms purchases. At the same time, there is likely to be a proportionate rise in the proliferation of defensive technologies. Already the US has demonstrated that deterrence needs to be complemented with defence in today8217;s security climes.

Therefore, countries such as even US allies in Europe and Japan, that until now had been reluctant to accept US deployment of missile defences, may now find it more prudent to support its research and development and even provide bases in their territories for its deployment.

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In fact, the Iraq war is likely to trigger a lot of rethinking in European foreign and military policies. A lack of consensus on support for the military operation has already driven a wedge between the US and so called 8216;8216;Old Europe8217;8217;. While the US may punish these countries by denying them lucrative contracts in rebuilding Iraq, there are also reports that a further price may be extracted by frustrating efforts of the French and German firms to expand their access into the lucrative American defence markets.

Meanwhile, the strain on NATO and its likely fallout on the European security architecture shall cast its shadow on US-Europe relations. Even more significantly, the war on Iraq has shown the limits of the UN, and public outcry. No amount of opposition, neither domestic nor international, could rein in the US military juggernaut.

Not surprisingly, therefore, strategic analysts in other countries too are exhorting governments to base foreign policies on realpolitik and be concerned only with the country8217;s own self-interest in this selfish, brutish world. Are we then witness to the death of principle-based international relations and multilateralism?

Above all, from a larger, humanitarian point of view, the most disturbing implication of the Iraq war is the gradual desensitisation of the human spirit to bloodshed and violence.

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Meanwhile, allocation of reconstruction contracts has already picked up momentum. As always, this war too has proved that there8217;s always money to be made in someone8217;s misery and destruction.

8212; The writer has a Ph.D in international relations