The Peril Next Door

Pakistan, in spite of the tremendous aid and assistance it8217;s got from the US and the international community after September 11, 2001, ...

Pakistan, in spite of the tremendous aid and assistance it8217;s got from the US and the international community after September 11, 2001, faces what appears to be dangerous decade ahead. Sandip Waslekar and his team have carried out an in-depth study based purely on Pakistani sources to make an assessment of where the country, which by any classification would rank as a middle power, is headed. And four out of the five hypothetical, possible and probable, scenarios outlined by the team indicate that our neighbour continues perilously on the slippery slope downwards. Even the best-case scenario posits only a small reversal from this decline.

Pakistan8217;s economy and prosperity are heavily dependent on agriculture. Compared to the pre-independence period, when Punjab essentially the western half was called the 8220;granary of India8221;, it is already forced to import foodgrain. As it is, General Musharraf has realised that agricultural output has a major impact on economic growth, so much so that the government this year adopted the unique method of calculating the GDP growth on the hypothetical basis of a normal season!

The Future of Pakistan: The Dangerous Decade Ahead
By Sandip Waslekar, Leena Pillai and Shabnam Siddiqui
International Centre for Peace Initiatives
Price: Rs 1050

Water inflows have already reduced by one-third since the 1980s. The estimated investment of 25 billion over the next quarter century is unlikely to be available without massive external aid. This has led the rese-

arch team and many Pakistani experts to conclude that Pakistan8217;s agriculture is heading toward complete collapse in 10-12 years due to rapidly increasing shortages of water availability for irrigation. This scenario could change only if the country receives good rains every year for the next 6-7 years.

At the same time Pakistan is facing a deeply worrisome prospect with regard to its ability to deal with poverty and social welfare. Socio-economic conditions have deteriorated so much in the past 15 years that incidence of poverty has accelerated, increasing the number of people below the poverty line from 17 million in the mid-1980s to nearly 50 million in a total population of 140 million. Things could only get worse. By 2010, the number could be 84 million total population: 168 million. At current rates of economic and population growth, 62 per cent of Pakistan8217;s population could be below the poverty line by 2025.

Every other indicator lends credibility to the view that the system is stretched to near-breakpoint, and might have actually moved faster down the disaster lane if the post-9/11 aid had not been forthcoming. To the five hypothetical outcomes in the study, it is possible to add a scenario that could lead Pakistan toward its own version of an 8220;Islamic8221; revolution backed by the hardline, extreme elements in the army, with or without an internecine war.

It is almost vital for decision makers and opinion shapers in India particularly and the international community generally to seriously look at this very readable study packed with empirical data to support the analysis. Except in the most optimistic case, evidence for which is hard to come by, all scenarios would pose very serious challenges to India. Pre-occupied as we are with terrorism perpetuated from across the borders, we need to reflect on the longer-term trends also.