That man from Gujarat

Who8217;s going to lead the BJP in the next elections? Indications from Dehradun 8212; the hill state meeting was perhaps an unwitting admission of the mountainous task ahead 8212; were as follows: not even Rajnath Singh8217;s best friend would pick him, the BJP8217;s worst enemy wouldn8217;t wish Venkaiah Naidu as PM candidate, Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, both of whom can be legitimate contenders, still seem to cancel each other out. Who does that leave, assuming L.K. Advani would do the sensible thing and allow a younger leader to emerge? Narendra Modi, of course. And Narendra Modi knows it. He didn8217;t make the official fuss expected of him in Gujarat over the singing of Vande Mataram but he distributed Gujarati language Vande Mataram stickers at the party meet 8212; a clever attempt to distinguish policy from politics. The lack of this distinction, with its most terrible manifestation being the riots, is what Modi carries as a big baggage. That he has had apolitical observers praising his administration in Gujarat and that he sometimes attempts to sound sensible while answering questions on terrorism indicate how serious he8217;s about shedding the baggage, about taking the big step from Gandhinagar to Delhi.

But this is a baggage that8217;s hard to throw off and, if the BJP thinks otherwise, it would probably be making the most extravagant blunder in India8217;s political history. Forget about the chattering classes whom Modi groupies love to hate, the Gujarat CM is big risk in mass politics. The BJP has had to frequently think about tactical voting by Muslims. What does it think will happen if Modi is its leader? Muslims, psephologists say, can influence decisions in 150 Lok Sabha constituencies. Can the BJP ignore that? Especially since Hindu vote consolidation has proved to be a bit of a myth. And what about allies? Will Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik or even the Akalis be with the NDA?

All this is without the barrage of hostile attention that a Modi-led BJP will attract from several sources, national and international. Hard Hindutva romantics dismiss all of this as hassles that have to be ignored. But if the BJP has to think of ruling India again, hard Hindutva romanticism is the last thing it needs. It needs a leader. Modi is not that leader.