Spectres at our gates

Eight per cent growth rate is a national average. Some states have chalked up nearly 12 per cent...

Eight per cent growth rate is a national average. Some states have chalked up nearly 12 per cent, others barely reach four to five per cent. There is, therefore, a deep regional imbalance. The fruits of growth are also largely confined to the cities, and do not extend to the rural areas where the majority of Indians live. They are disproportionately appropriated by the middle classes and the middle and higher castes, and continue to elude others including Muslims.

All this is generating acute discontent. In many parts of the country there is a low or high-level violence, born partly out of economic dissatisfaction and partly out of regional separatism with which it is closely connected. Nearly a quarter of the country is scarred by insurgency and other forms of violence. This is likely to increase. While absolute poverty should decrease, a sense of relative deprivation is bound to increase, and that is often more dangerous. People accept poverty when they see that others are not much better. But when they see that others are making enormous strides, sometimes illegitimately, those left behind feel aggrieved and protest against what they see as an injustice. As historical research shows, public protests are most widespread when conditions improve but do so unequally.

After a careful analysis, a distinguished academic who knows India well has worked out the following future scenario for the country. He thinks that the sense of relative deprivation, pockets of acute poverty and lower caste frustration are likely to intensify over the next 15 years. These frustrations are likely to be regionally concentrated, and hence most dangerous. He argues that if we draw a line from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh and beyond, the eastern half of the country is particularly vulnerable to militant movements. The Maoists and Naxalites are, of course, too divided and ideologically confused to give these movements a revolutionary impulse. However, that may not remain forever, as we know from the experiences of the Soviet Union, Cuba and China. If a revolutionary movement led by a powerful leftist party were to arise, as it well might, the country could fragment vertically, and parts of the eastern half could form the basis of the Communist Republic of India. Their proximity to China would inevitably tempt our powerful neighbour to fish in troubled waters, damaging our relations with it and greatly increasing our military budget with correspondent cuts in basic services. The Indian state might resort to repressive violence to put down disorder, but that has its limits and is often counterproductive. The academic I am talking about therefore concludes that far from 2020 celebrating India8217;s birth as an economic superpower, it could spell its fragmentation.

Professors are generally poor at prophesising the future. I am not entirely persuaded by his scenario, but I am not prepared to dismiss it out of hand either. Anyone with an acute sense of history would know that there is no reason why revolutionary movements might not occur in India as they have done in other countries, and that they can only be avoided by careful long-term planning.

What, then, should we do? First, we must temper our current euphoria with a sense of realism, and fully acknowledge the magnitude of likely dangers. Second, we must ensure equitable distribution of the fruits of economic growth, and return to the idea of social justice that lies at the heart of our Constitution. Our policies need to aim at both satisfying people8217;s basic needs and reducing the growing inequality, which is one of the highest in the world. Third, we must ensure that the fruits of economic growth are not appropriated by one particular community. This is particularly dangerous in a divided society like ours. We must, therefore, make sure that minorities, especially Muslims and backward castes, fully benefit from our increasing prosperity and acquire a stake in the country. Fourth, we must not concentrate merely on our economic performance. We need to make sure that our political institutions, especially Parliament and political parties, are up to scratch, enjoy popular legitimacy, and are able to cope with the consequences of economic growth. In politics, solving one problem often creates others, and self-complacency is the greatest vice. We cannot avoid hard and painful choices, as we are currently doing.

Finally, we need to articulate an inspiring moral vision of where we wish to take our country, and mobilise our people around it. A nation without a vision perishes. It is the quality of the vision, and the hope it gives, that will eventually help India navigate its way through treacherous waters. Political parties exist to provide such a comprehensive vision. Ours, including the left, are too obsessively concerned with short-term and tactical gains to do so. Ask any of them what they stand for, what is their vision of India and its place in the world, and the response is either silence or empty sentimental platitudes. We simply cannot go on like this. All who love India, as I do, need to approach the task with a great sense of urgency. Concluded

The writer is a Labour member of the House of Lords and professor of political philosophy at the University of Westminster