Seeing CTBT through

One worrying consequence of a September poll is that it throws the government8217;s plans on acceding to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty CTBT into confusion. Until Atal Behari Vajpayee lost his vote of confidence, the government8217;s road map to the Geneva Conference on Disarmament was reasonably clear. Although the government had not said in black and white it intended to sign the CTBT, it had put and was putting into place all the pieces that would make it possible to do so. It is essential to recall exactly what those pieces were because in this dirty, do-or-die election Vajpayee8217;s words all sides will succumb to temptation to use the bomb/CTBT to score political goals. Politicians, always prompt in rising to the call of national security, should realise once more the importance of thrashing out an all-party consensus. They must decide on how best to deal with the dilemma of an approaching deadline for an international treaty which, without question, is in India8217;s interests to see brought into force.

ThePrime Minister8217;s declaration at the UN last year that India would not stand in the way of the CTBT coming into force was taken to indicate a willingness to sign it. India is one of the 44 nations whose signatures are essential to bring the test ban into force by September 20. Progress on arms control talks with the US has been good and removed one major hurdle in the way of India8217;s accession. Vajpayee8217;s other caveat was ratification of the CTBT by the P-5 five weapons powers who are permanent members of the Security Council, an outcome which is still awaited but more or less certain. The assurances of the DAE and DRDO that 8220;weaponisation was complete8221; and sub-critical testing feasible, confirmed there were no technical-scientific objections to India joining a global test ban. Finally, the key elements of the government8217;s nuclear doctrine spelled out time and again over the last year have made the CTBT unexceptionable. These elements were a unilateral moratorium on testing, a minimum-credible-deterrentposture and the declaration that India would never be the first to use nuclear weapons nor use or threaten to use them against non-nuclear states.

In layman8217;s terms all this conveyed the clear message that India8217;s security concerns did not oblige it to hold out any longer and it was preparing to get aboard the CTBT with a view to furthering global disarmament. The last piece in the puzzle, domestic political consensus on the CTBT, eluded the government mainly because the efforts that the Minister of External Affairs stated were being made to reach consensus were not seriously undertaken. That must now be remedied. Since a whole can of worms has opened up with a nightwatchman at the Centre, grey areas in the law should not be exploited to scuttle the CTBT. Vajpayee8217;s claim that it would be 8220;highly improper8221; for a caretaker government to commit to international treaties is inaccurate. The CTBT requires the signature of the recognised government of the day and that in the eyes of the Constitution is thestatus of Vajpayee8217;s government as it has itself been at pains to prove. So he should arm himself with a political consensus and go forth boldly. Ratification of the CTBT can wait for the next government.