Questions now over Obama146;s electability

But just when it seemed that the Democratic Party was close to anointing Obama as its nominee, he lost yet again in a big general election state, dragged down by his weakness among blue-collar voters, older voters and white voters. The composition of Clinton8217;s support has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing.

While arguably critical to determining the viability of Obama8217;s candidacy, the role of race is difficult to disentangle from the other strands of the political debate surrounding him, encompassing topics like values, elitism, ideology and experience. Although some polling evidence hints at the depth of racial attitudes in this country and the obstacles Obama faces winning white voters, it has historically proved challenging to measure how racial attitudes factor into voter decisions.

It is also hard to discount that Obama has arrived at this place in his candidacy after winning big victories in very white states. The crowds at his rallies are as white as any at a Clinton rally, and many analysts in both parties believe that racial attitudes in this country are changing at a breakneck pace, particularly among younger voters, making it risky to impose models from even four years ago on this unusual election.

The statement by Obama8217;s wife, Michelle, that 8220;for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country,8221; has been invoked by Republicans in an effort to portray Obama as culturally unlike the people he is asking to vote for him, a historically potent line of attack. 8220;Race is intertwined with a broader notion that he is not one of us,8221; said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, which did an extensive examination of voter attitudes, particularly among Democrats who have an unfavorable view of Obama. 8220;They react negatively to people who are seen as different.8221;

Geoff Garin, a senior strategist for Clinton, said that while race may have had a role in Obama8217;s problems in Pennsylvania, his biggest problem was that these events underlined the image of him being out of touch. At the same time, Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, has sought to portray Obama as ideologically out of step with much of the country, focusing on his views on tax cuts, health care and the war in Iraq.

8220;The big question about Barack Obama from the very beginning has been, Is he safe?8221; said Peter D Hart, a Democratic pollster not affiliated with any campaign. 8220;Safe in terms of both the cultural values that he has, and about whether he is strong enough to be commander in chief.8221;

For Obama, race presents two potential problems: Voters opposing him simply because he is black, and Democrats who will not support him because they do not think a black man can win a general election.

The results in Pennsylvania suggest that problems exist. A poll of Democratic voters conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the television networks and The Associated Press found that Clinton drew 63 per cent of the white vote while Obama drew 90 per cent of the black vote, mirroring a pattern in many other states. More strikingly, the poll found that 18 per cent of Democrats said that race mattered to them in this contest8212;and just 63 percent of those voters said they would support Obama in a general election.

The doubts

8226;Is the race factor going to affect Obama8217;s chances should he run against John McCain?

8226; Can Obama win the trust of white, working-class voters?

8226; Will he be able to win over senior voters who have till date been supporting Clinton?