Prachanda problem

On the face of it, the grumbling in the South Block that Nepal8217;s new prime minister, Prachanda, has presented himself in Beijing before travelling to New Delhi may seem trivial. Underlying this quibble, however, is a deeper challenge that our security establishment has refused to recognise 8212; the consequences of China8217;s rise for India8217;s periphery. Kathmandu8217;s explanation that Prachanda8217;s decision was defined by the circumstances 8212; the need to attend the closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics 8212; does not wash. That Prachanda had avoided visiting India even before the general elections that propelled him to power reflects a deeper problem.

If the Maoist leader had chosen to deliberately injure India, his foreign minister, Upendra Yadav, adds insult when he says Nepal seeks 8220;equal ties8221; with Beijing and New Delhi. That is precisely the problem. The Maoist emphasis on 8220;equidistance8221; between China and India is diplomatic code in Kathmandu for an end to the very special relationship with New Delhi. Geography as well as shared history and culture have bound Nepal and India in ways that are not comparable to any other bilateral relationship of either country. Although Maoists had in the past called for breaking Nepal8217;s those bonds, New Delhi had assumed that the Maoists, once in power, would stay true to Nepal8217;s strategic tradition.

Prachanda8217;s departure from Nepal8217;s natural logic for a strong relationship with India can only be understood in the context of Beijing8217;s new powerplay in South Asia. To be sure, Beijing always disputed India8217;s claim to a special role in the subcontinent and the political elites in our neighbourhood, including those in Kathmandu, were quite happy to play the perennial 8220;China card8221;. What has changed in the last few years is the economic and political salience of the China option for our neighbours. A rising China, with its determined strategic activism in our borderlands, is now poised to trump

India8217;s geographic advantages south of the Himalayas. Prachanda8217;s Beijing sojourn merely confirms the subcontinent8217;s shifting balance of power in China8217;s favour. New Delhi cannot counteract Beijing8217;s attempt at a structural transformation of subcontinental geopolitics by sending protest notes to Kathmandu. India can no longer sustain its primacy in Nepal by merely proclaiming it. Instead the UPA government must respond vigorously to China8217;s rise and develop an entirely new diplomatic toolkit.