
That Narendra Modi won the elections in Gujarat is, and should be, a matter of sadness and concern to Indian civil society.
But though Modi has won an overwhelming majority in Gujarat, he must acknowledge that he was apprehensive about the possibility of common sense and reasonableness reducing his prospects of victory. He kept complaining about the Election Commission delaying the elections.
He feared that with the passage of time, the pernicious emotions he had encouraged in the electorate would fade away. That the abiding and resilient values of tolerance and harmony will re-assert themselves, thereby robbing him of the benefits he anticipated from an angry and assertive Hindu populace. In the event, he did not lose anything at all. It is worth examining why.
The nexus between the Bombay and Dubai based criminal mafia and a small segment of the Muslim population in Gujarat had affected the sense of security of civil society in Gujarat. The burning of the railway compartment at Godhra was, in a manner, a culminating catalyst.
Narendra Modi, the VHP and Bajrang Dal, took advantage of the incident to perpetuate themselves in power on the basis of the resentment and anger generated by the Godhra incident.
Instead of bringing the culprits of the Godhra arson to book, Modi connived in and encouraged a state-wide pogrom against Muslims, polarising civil society on Hindu-Muslim lines.
Political discourse in Gujarat from March till December was characterised by provocative and violent rhetoric by the leaders of the Gujarat BJP, VHP and Bajrang Dal. The rhetoric was not only anti-Muslim but also directed against parties that emphasised the commitment to secular ideals.
An external factor which compounded this situation must be noted. The ISI of Pakistan took full advantage of the BJP politics in Gujarat and fermented Hindu-Muslim antagonisms which found a critical expression in the terrorist attack master-minded by Muslim terrorists on the Akshardham temple.
These terrorists belonged to Pakistan-based organisations. Resentment generated by the attack served the political objectives of Modi, VHP and Bajrang Dal.
These were the negative factors which contributed to the BJP8217;s victory in Gujarat. But one must also acknowledge the creative and positive side of the BJP8217;s pre-election activities spread over several months. BJP and its allies engaged in a systematic political campaign to woo the rural and Adivasi voters.
VHP cadres undertook social and developmental work in the rural population, particularly the Adivasis subject to exploitative activities by the urban entrepreneurial community which included some Muslims.
Reminiscent of the National Socialist Movement in Germany in the early 1930s, Muslim exploitation was alleged as a factor affecting the well being of the Adivasis, an accusation that is not entirely accurate. Exploitative activities originated in the urban classes transcending religious identities. But then, electoral politics is not about logic or trust.
In contrast, the main challenger to these narrow communal orientations did not get its act together. The Congress did not have a cadre of workers to match the performance of VHP and Bajrang Dal cadres. With the benefit of hindsight, there is an emerging consensus that the nomination of Shankarsinh Vaghela, a recent defector from the BJP, as president of the Gujarat Congress, did not go down well with older Congress cadres.
Vaghela did not have much credibility with the average Gujarati voter who viewed him as a political opportunist. The voter also viewed the decision of the Congress high command as a purely tactical move without any ideological solidity. The distribution of tickets to Congress candidates was not considered fair by grassroot members of the Congress in Gujarat. Vaghela8217;s recommendations for granting tickets to his nominees and these recommendations being accepted generated internal contradictions in the party8217;s electoral campaign.
It is significant that a majority of seats won by the Congress went to established members of the Congress, not to the new converts who joined the electoral fray under Vaghela. There is general consensus that the Congress might have got even a lesser number of seats but for the personal participation in the campaign by Sonia Gandhi and other leaders who came from outside Gujarat.
Even here, the Congress leaders responsible for managing the Gujarat elections prevented some effective Congress leaders from campaigning.
Congress8217;s defeat does not have implications only in Gujarat but in other parts of the country as well as the defeat of Congress candidates in bye-elections in Rajasthan shows.
Modi8217;s victory will have negative implications for the party in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The Congress will have to be methodical, systematic and politically sensitive to counter the pernicious implications of the results in Gujarat. The high command should rely on the local leaders in each area. Though the time is short and there is a lack of permanent cadres, Congress workers at the field level should be systematically utilised. The campaign itself should be rooted in local concerns and aspirations, and not on ambiguous and general assessments given by party figures who may not be knowledgeable about local conditions.
The Congress should re-acquire its ideological integrity as conceived by Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru. Most importantly, in the short term, the Congress should seriously examine alliances with like-minded political parties for forthcoming state elections and the next general election.
Modi has asserted that his victory has redeemed Gujarat8217;s pride. He has not spelt out the constituent elements of this pride. To me, Gujarat has much to be proud of in Mahatma Gandhi, Bhulabhai Desai, Vithalbhai and Vallabh Bhai Patel.
Gujarat8217;s pride is in the landmarks of our freedom struggle at Kheda, at Bardoli and in the Dandi March. Gujarat8217;s pride lies in its incontrovertible credentials as one of the foremost entrepreneurial states in India. This pride does not lie in spurious Hindutva or misrepresentation of the pristine values of Hinduism.
Modi8217;s victory in Gujarat is not the triumph of pride but of irrational prejudice.