Launch into the Ivy League

India is not far from an efficient and stable ICBM capability. Now it requires political will

Earlier this month, India successfully test fired its nuclear capable Agni-III missile. The indigenously developed two-stage, solid propellant, 16 metre-long missile weighing 48 tonnes validated all the important flight parameters, thus fulfilling its mission objectives in its test. India thus joined a select group of nations to field missiles with the capability to hit targets at a distance of 3,500 kms with precision. Indian scientists have for the first time also ratified frontline technology of flex nozzle control system for rocket guidance, specially developed composite propellants, and guidance and control with fault tolerant avionics.

With this launch, India demonstrated its persistence to develop and possess an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile ICBM with a nuclear weapon-carrier capability. Agni8217;s range can be increased using PSLV simulations, thereby giving it an ICBM reach.

India has hinted openly at its desire for pursuing its missile programme on the sidelines of its commercial space programme. As long back as 1979, Professor Satish Dhawan had declared that the SLV-3 could be converted into an Inter-mediate range Ballistic Missile IRBM with a range of approximately 1500 kms.

It would be fair to assume at this juncture that India has enough technical expertise to develop an ICBM. Most of the technologies needed to develop an ICBM are not different from that required to launch a satellite into orbit. The key technologies that differ between an ICBM and a satellite launch vehicle are as follows:

8226; A re-entry heat-shield capable of withstanding several thousand degrees centigrade 8212; the recent test demonstrates the Indian capacity for the same

8226; Sophisticated guidance and positioning system 8212; India8217;s ability to position a satellite into the geo-synchronous orbit proves its ability for precision guidance and sensitive position-correcting instruments

8226; A warhead instead of a satellite 8212; India seems to possess this technology

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These developments show a steady growth in India8217;s missile programme. However, there are a few technical hurdles to overcome.

India currently possesses two commercial launch vehicles, the PSLV with a solid rocket motor of 138 metric tonnes in its first stage and a liquid rocket engine of 37 tonnes as a second stage. The GSLV configuration is quite similar in its first stage with a solid rocket motor of 125 metric tonnes. Pursuing this option could be disadvantageous since both the motors mentioned above are too heavy for an ICBM. An Indian ICBM could, however, be also built using several liquid propellant engines. But this option is impractical in its approach since it would require a lot of time in getting liquid engines re-fuelled and subsequently not suited for quick military launches, if required.

So far, India8217;s missile capabilities had not given it a second-strike capability vis-agrave;-vis China. With a range of approximately 3,500 kms, Agni-III is capable of hitting most parts of the Asian continent and brings almost the whole of Pakistan and the Chinese cities of Shanghai and Beijing within striking distance. Though India has insisted that the missile testing wasn8217;t country specific and China-centric, India has achieved credibility in its nuclear deterrent posture vis-agrave;-vis China with this test, something it has been striving for quite a while.

One of the most powerful ballistic missiles that China has deployed is the liquid-propelled DF-5 which is being replaced by the all-solid DF-31. Though Agni-III is certainly more powerful than any missile in Pakistan8217;s inventory, the nuclear balance between India and Pakistan had been stabilised long back with both land and air-based capabilities. Pakistan possesses sufficient deterrent capability vis-agrave;-vis India and has its eyes fixed on solid-propelled missiles, and its Ghaznavi is based on Chinese-supplied M-11 missiles.

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India8217;s technological prowess and its ambitions to emerge as a major power in the international system have been driving it toward the acquisition of ICBM capability for some time now. The reported success in the recent launch indicates that India may be swiftly filling in the technological gaps. However, this doesn8217;t necessarily reflect a political will, which is required for it to reach the ivy-league of missile capable states.

The article was co-authored with G. Bharath. Pant teaches at King8217;s College, London; Bharath is research fellow at Cornell University