How many corners in Karnataka?

The question in May: Will the political contest see the emergence of a new bi-polarity or is the third force there to stay?

The upcoming assembly election in Karnataka will bring answers to several consequential questions. Having seen four chief ministers come and go in as many years, how will the electorate respond to the political turbulence it has recently witnessed? In other words, will Karnataka see the re-assertion of a two-party system or will the third force continue to cast its shadow over the verdict and possibly the formation of the new government? Then, will the political distinctiveness of the regions within the state permit a clear mandate to emerge across the state? And, can the new delimitation of constituencies make a dramatic difference?

Many would argue that the election in May will be a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. But it would be politically naive to write off the Janata Dal S so early in the race. Throughout the campaign, it is safe to predict that Congress and BJP leaders will spend sleepless nights worrying about how much the JDS may eat into their existing and potential vote/seat share. What will be equally worrisome to them, moreover, is the extent to which the JDS will play the spoiler by splitting their vote in specific constituencies.

The electoral picture appears less hazy when we zero in on the specific regions within the state. Traditionally the state has been divided into five regions: one, the Mumbai-Karnataka region which covers the area that was earlier part of the Bombay presidency; two, the Hyderabad-Karnataka region which includes areas that were part of the erstwhile Nizam territory; three, the Central Karnataka region which includes the hilly Malnad region and the upper parts of the Old Mysore princely state; four, the Coastal Karnataka region that covers the regions hugging the coastline and five, the southern part of the Old Mysore region. Some would further divide the last region into two sub-regions 8212; Bangalore and South Karnataka.

The nature of political competition varies across these regions. In Mumbai-Karnataka it appears more or less a straight fight between the BJP and Congress. The BJP hopes to build on its 2004 performance here while the Congress is keen to retrieve lost ground. The powerful Lingayat community has considerable influence here.

The Hyderabad-Karnataka region has traditionally been a Congress citadel. The JDS registered spectacular wins here the last time around. This is the region where the BJP is the weakest. While the Lingayat community wields some influence in the region, the Other Backward Castes and the tribals have a sizeable presence.

The Central Karnataka region will once again largely see a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. The BJP did well in pockets in this region in the last election. The Coastal Karnataka region, too, will see the Congress and BJP slugging it out. The relative importance of this region has declined with a reduction in the seats after delimitation.

The Old Mysore region accounts for the bulk of the seats in the state. The fight here is not triangular but rather between any two of the three major contestants in a mind-boggling array of combinations. Each party has its strong zones of influence here. In many constituencies, the Vokkaliga community plays a pivotal role. The Lingayat community also has its areas of influence. This region has traditionally seen Congress-JDS rivalry but the BJP made a few inroads in the last assembly elections.

Story continues below this ad

If we thus step into the regions we notice the bi-polar nature of the contest which assumes a triangular complexion only when it is extrapolated across the state.

The redrawing of the boundaries of the constituencies has also left all parties guessing. The share of seats of the Bangalore region has seen a very sharp increase, for instance. This could have interesting implications as this urban region has not necessarily been a BJP bastion 8212; the Congress has done well here.

As the campaign picks up momentum, both the BJP and Congress worry about another House in which they are unable to secure a majority on their own and would have to depend on the 8216;third8217; force. While the JDS claims that it will secure a majority on its own, all indications are that it is focusing on a limited number of constituencies to be able to secure a sufficient number of seats to make it numerically important in a 8216;hung8217; assembly.

In sum, therefore, the question in May is this: in a traditionally bi-polar state where a third force has always hugged the margins or gained in importance only at moments of transition, be it in 1983 or in 2004, will 2008 create a new bi-polarity or entrench multi-polarity?

The writer is a political analyst based in Bangalore