Hegde8217;s revenge

If Tamil Nadu has sprung the biggest of the electoral surprises this time, neighbouring Karnataka has produced the most predictable of the p...

If Tamil Nadu has sprung the biggest of the electoral surprises this time, neighbouring Karnataka has produced the most predictable of the poll results. Unpredictable, however, are the post-poll developments in the state. The logic of the situation does not rule out a political realignment that would have seemed improbable not long ago, though it will be premature to see any indication of such a change in the insecure J.H. Patel8217;s talk of quot;issue-basedquot; Dal support for a BJP-led government in New Delhi. The winning alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Lok Shakti may have made a wider sweep than expected, but its victory was a foregone conclusion to anyone who had watched the disarray and fragmentation of the state Dal over the last two years.

The serious problems for the party and its regime in Karnataka began, ironically, after the state and the Dal unit saw their representative installed as the Prime Minister. Deve Gowda, who had headed a strong party government in the state, presided over itsprogressive liquidation from his vantage position. The days of the Dal power in Bangalore began to appear numbered the day the most provincial of premiers successfully prevailed upon the central leadership to expel Ramakrishna Hegde from the party. The BJP has won the largest tally of 13 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, but owes it clearly to crucial support from a vengeful Hegde with his strong subregional base.

The victorious allies vary in their responses to Patel8217;s political predicament, but the dissimilarity makes little difference to it. The Chief Minister anticipated the election results as well as the adversaries8217; responses when he hinted at his plan for dissolution of the Assembly or a fresh vote of confidence if the Dal won less than 10 seats. The Dal legislators and ministers loyal to Hegde and the Lok Shakti did not conceal panic at the prospect of attracting provisions of the anti-defection law.

After the electoral debacle, he has renewed the threat, and the Lok Shakti has responded with a pleato the Governor against such proposals. The state BJP has, on the contrary, been strident. Its president, B.S. Yediyurappa, started off by threatening a repetition of Uttar Pradesh in Karnataka, even if some party higher-ups may consider it yet another aberration8217;. The party has now demanded the resignation of the Patel government on grounds rejected outright by its Rajasthan counterpart. It may only be a matter of time before it succeeds in securing the Lok Shakti8217;s support for the campaign.

Variations in the nuances of the victors can only spell poor comfort to Patel, who can hardly pretend to have a political trump up his sleeve. The Chief Minister8217;s olive branch of handy support at the Centre may not help to avert the BJP challenge in the state. His post-mortem on the party8217;s decline and fall is unlikely to serve any practical purpose. It is too late in the day for Gowda and Hegde to bury their hatchets. Patel may be constrained to seek for his regime what Gowda could not assure for his rule at theCentre 8212; outside support of the Congress 8212; in order to cope with constant threats to stability in the state.