General146;s particulars

For India, the good news if any from the controversial presidential election in Pakistan is that Pervez Musharraf, in whom New Delhi has invested so much political capital, is likely to be around for another five years. After a tense start with the General, that included repeated military confrontation and relentless cross-border terrorism, India now finds itself at a rare moment of repose with Pakistan. More positive developments have emerged out of the peace process, since it was launched in January 2004, than in the many previous decades. Having embarked on a purposeful negotiation with Pakistan on the sensitive question of Jammu and Kashmir8212;the indications are that talks have made impressive progres8212;-India would like to bring it to fruition. Musharraf8217;s continuation as President should offer much needed stability to the peace process.

But there is bad news too; and plenty of it. As Pakistan goes through a turbulent political transition, Musharraf is no longer the powerful interlocutor that he was. Despite claiming a 8220;great victory8221; in the presidential elections on Saturday, Musharraf is some distance away from reclaiming his legitimacy or primacy in Pakistan. The resignation of many opposition members from the National Assembly and the refusal of Benazir8217;s People8217;s Party to participate in the voting have made the election farcical. Pakistan8217;s Supreme Court is yet to rule on the legality of Musharraf8217;s re-election as president. Even if the Court allows him a soft landing and Musharraf agrees to become a civilian President, he will soon have to share the untrammelled power he has enjoyed since late 1999. There will be Musharraf8217;s designated successor as the Army Chief, Ashfaq Kayani, who by the sheer virtue of his uniform will enjoy enormous clout. Then there Musharraf8217;s unnatural alliance with Benazir Bhutto that has been crafted in Washington. As the Bush Administration mounts pressures on Islamabad to step up the war against the Aal Qaida, the Islamic extremists have threatened retaliation against Musharraf and Bhutto.

Pakistan8217;s current preoccupation with a deep domestic political crisis and a war on its western frontiers, that is unsuccessful and unpopular, has taken some of the heat off Jammu 038; Kashmir and the focus away from the Indo-Pak relations. New Delhi will be tempted to drift back towards a 8220;do nothing8221; strategy. That would be a big mistake.

Instead, India must make the best of the current pause in Indo-Pak relations by taking unilateral initiatives to alter the internal dynamics in J038;K, and get ready to cope with a new and uncertain political dispensation in Pakistan.