Friendless in Chennai

She has, in fact, experienced many difficult phases. There was the phase after the party8217;s disastrous showing in the 1996 assembly election, when she herself lost in Bargur, an AIADMK pocket borough, after allegations of mammoth corruption. Then there was her 28-day incarceration in December 1996, in cases relating to irregularities in the purchase of community colour television sets and disproportionate wealth allegedly amassed during her first term in power. There were humiliating appearances in special courts and she had faced revolts from several old-timers inducted into the party by AIADMK founder M.G. Ramachandran.

But she has also displayed the ability to rise above the reversals 8212; as she did in the 1998 Lok Sabha election, when she rode the crest of a powerful sympathy wave. The 1999 Lok Sabha election saw her slip up a bit, but she more than made up for this with an impressive return to power in the 2001 Assembly election. The DMK could manage just 39 of the 234 Assembly seats.

If she had played her cards better during her second term, she may not have had to face her present humiliation. The dramatic midnight arrest of her octogenarian rival and DMK chief, M. Karunanidhi, the anti-conversion law to woo the BJP back to her side, and the pre-dawn arrests and dismissals of striking government employees, were the three big factors that helped the DMK and its allies sweep the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2006 assembly elections in the state, Karunanidhi retained almost all his allies. This factor, together with a long list of glitzy poll freebies he drew up, helped power the DMK front back to Fort St George.

Today Jayalalithaa, once hailed as an 8216;Iron Butterfly8217;, suddenly appears vulnerable. Across the state, top functionaries of the AIADMK have started deserting it and knocking at the doors of 8216;Anna Arivalayam8217;, the sprawling DMK headquarters in Chennai. Some may argue that this is nothing unusual, especially after an election. Ambition drives many politicians to team up with the victor rather than wait in the sidelines for years to return to power.

What is also certainly a push factor is Amma8217;s own dictatorial hold over the AIADMK since 1991, when she wrested it from Janaki Ramachandran, the late wife of MGR. Jayalalithaa can, of course, justify her dictatorial ways on the ground that she remains the biggest asset for the AIADMK. She is also known to be extremely ruthless in dealing with those who have proved disloyal. Yet, despite this, important functionaries of her party today 8212; known to be her loyalists 8212; are tumbling out to greet her bitter political rivals, Karunanidhi and his sons, M. K. Stalin and M.K. Azhagiri, with gaudy silk shawls. They cite her aloofness and inaccessibility as the main reasons for their disenchantment with the AIADMK. Many of the rebels have also publicly accused Sasikala Natarajan, Jayalalithaa8217;s close friend, and her relatives 8212; including T.T. V. Dinakaran, the AIADMK treasurer 8212; of taking over the party, and sidelining old Jayalalithaa faithfuls.

This is not all. Even her allies during the May assembly election seem to be doing a re-think. The DPI, one of two parties that fought that election with her, has quit. Having antagonised the Congress by personally targeting Sonia Gandhi, and estranged the BJP, Jayalalithaa suddenly appears without friends in politics.

The performance of her party in the current elections will reveal just how much all the recent developments have damaged her and her party. Of course, it would be premature in the extreme to write off the Puratchi Thalaivi. The AIADMK-MGR vote bank in the state is still intact and the party is still the alternate pole in the state8217;s bipolar polity. But more electoral defeats, whether in the forthcoming local body polls or in the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, could damage her political prospects considerably.