
Tony Blair8217;s has got to have been the longest goodbye. So long that well before he finally hands over the prime ministership of Britain to Gordon Brown today, his departure from London8217;s 10 Downing Street has been planned many, many times over: secretary-general of the United Nations, reassuring replacement for Paul Wolfowitz at the World Bank 8212; but perhaps it is the most credible assignment that is most apt. Word abounds that he will now coordinate efforts to find peace in the Middle East, especially in the aftermath of Hamas-Fatah violence in Gaza. The assignment would return Blair to his still unsettled argument with history.
In interviews in his last weeks in office, he has repeated that at the heart of Blairism is 8216;liberal interventionism8217;. That, for most, is longhand for the one issue that currently eclipses all else on his ledger: Iraq. In his Manchester speech on Sunday, Brown noted that it was the one issue that had most divided the Labour Party and its government.
In those internationally fractious days of early 2003, Blair held by his eloquence on the need to invade Iraq. And somehow the impression was that, in his conviction in Britain8217;s 8216;special relationship8217; with the United States, the feeling that it was the transatlantic alliance that gave his country the capacity to assert its influence, he had been led into the war.
The Blairite narrative differed. By this, his case for intervention in Iraq 8212; that he was doing what he thought was right 8212; had not been manufactured after the Bush administration8217;s decision. It went back to his friend, Bill Clinton8217;s administration. In 1999, Blair articulated his 8220;doctrine of international community8221; in a speech in Chicago. It was part of his effort to persuade Clinton that troops were required on the ground for the NATO effort in Kosovo to be effective.
In that speech he placed the need for 8216;internationalism8217; in a wider context: 8220;I believe the world has changed in a8230; fundamental way. Globalisation has transformed our economies and our working practices. But globalisation is not just economic. It is also a political and economic phenomenon. We live in a world where isolationism has ceased to have a reason to exist. By necessity we have to cooperate with each other across nations.8221;
The most pressing foreign policy problem in the post-Cold War world was to identify the circumstances in which to get involved in other people8217;s conflicts. Blair identified five considerations for intervention: 8220;First, are we sure of our case? War is an imperfect instrument for righting humanitarian distress; but armed force is sometimes the only means of dealing with dictators. Second, have we exhausted all diplomatic options? We should always give peace every chance, as we have in the case of Kosovo. Third, on the basis of a practical assessment of the situation, are there military operations we can sensibly and prudently undertake? Fourth, are we prepared for the long term? In the past we talked too much of exit strategies. But having made a commitment we cannot simply walk away once the fight is over; better to stay with moderate numbers of troops than return for repeat performances with large numbers. And finally, do we have national interests involved? The mass expulsion of ethnic Albanians from Kosovo demanded the notice of the rest of the world. But it does make a difference that this is taking place in such a combustible part of Europe.8221;
It was in this speech 8212; with Bush8217;s move to the White House still more than a year into the future 8212; that Blair made a case against Saddam: 8220;Many of our problems have been caused by two dangerous and ruthless men 8212; Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic.8221; And 8212; before confirmation came on September 11, 2001 8212; he reminded America that as the world8217;s most powerful country it could not afford to retreat into isolationism.
Now each passing day brings more bad news from Iraq. But Blair8217;s role in the conduct of the war 8212; in failing to provide a steadying hand and in presenting the case for invasion 8212; came under a cloud very soon after the 8220;coalition of the willing8221; swept into Mesopotamia. The claims on weapons on mass destruction at Saddam8217;s disposal to be used within an hour8217;s notice, defence scientist David Kelly8217;s death, the Hutton inquiry are, in this story, long familiar milestones.
Also tossed into a mangled heap were arguments for empire that today seem so quaint that it takes effort to remember how seductively they raged just four years ago, and how they swept Blair8217;s 8216;liberal interventionism8217; into contestations of America8217;s imperial burden. Interestingly, the most lively arguments came from intellectuals belonging to Commonwealth countries.
On the liberal end of the spectrum, Canadian human rights scholar Michael Ignatieff wrote in a seminal essay 8216;Empire Lite8217; in January 2003: 8220;What word but 8216;empire8217; describes the awesome thing that America is becoming?8221; This empire was obtained in a state of deep denial but 9/11 showed it contours and the 8220;avenging hatred it arouses8221;. But: 8220;America8217;s empire is not like empires of times past, built on colonies, conquest and the white man8217;s burden. The 21st century imperium is a new invention in the annals of political science, an empire lite, a global hegemony whose grace notes are free markets, human rights and democracy, enforced by the most awesome military power the world has ever known.8221;
On the more conservative end, also in 2003, Oxford-based historian Niall Ferguson published Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World. In this excessively rosy recap of the good established by the British Empire in the colonies, he sought old solutions to current problems. He applauded Blair8217;s internationalism, but concluded: 8220;There is, in truth, only one power capable of playing an imperial role in the modern world, and that is the United States.8221; The obvious lesson the US could take from Britain was that 8220;the most successful economy in the world8230; can do a very great deal to impose its preferred values on less technologically advanced societies8221;.
For the US, now in election 2008 mode, increased anti-Americanism and rising human costs of occupation are making more shrill calls to bring the troops back home. Blair, however, is still convinced that the verdict on 8216;liberal interventionism8217; is not in. Even if the Middle East assignment does not come to pass, the fact that hope fluttered on Palestine upon rumours that he could now work out of a West Bank office must be an optimistic sign for him. He who insisted that history would judge his decision on Iraq is still thought capable of bearing influence in the neighbourhood.