Either we rule or all go to polls — Cong

NEW DELHI, April 10: The Congress has made it clear to Opposition party managers that in case the BJP-led Government falls, Sonia Gandhi ...

NEW DELHI, April 10: The Congress has made it clear to Opposition party managers that in case the BJP-led Government falls, Sonia Gandhi will head an alternative only if it’s a purely Congress Government supported from the outside by other parties. And if that doesn’t happen, she would rather go for polls.

Sonia sees many advantages in a minority Congress government. If the allies act tough–as they have done with Vajpayee–she can always go for polls. There will be no difficulty in recommending dissolution of the Lok Sabha because the Cabinet will be made up entirely of Congress leaders.Even though the Third Force constituents are chafing against Sonia’s desire for “sanitised politics,” Sonia appears to be insistent that she doesn’t want a messy coalition arrangement.

Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who is working overtime to persuade the various parties to back the Congress from the outside, has mainly to contend with Mulayam Singh Yadav and J Jayalalitha. The CPM is confident of bringing around Mulayam whohas been resistant to the idea of Sonia taking over at the Centre.

His eyes are now set on Uttar Pradesh. It is learnt that he might agree to support a Congress Government if he can be assured that the party will help bring down the BJP government in UP and get him a Governor of his choice in Lucknow.

As for Jayalalitha, the CPM has already made it clear that it cannot support an arrangement with the AIDMK in it. It is not only being loyal to its ally the DMK, which is otherwise being wooed by the BJP, but it is trying to create a situation in which the AIDMK would be forced to support the Congress from the outside.

Anyways, for Jayalalitha, any alternative to Vajpayee is better than if the BJP Government stays. For then she will have to contend with a hostile government at the Centre and also in the state, with the possibility of both working in tandem against her interests.

Alternatively, she too can opt for polls. She hopes that with the DMK-TMC alliance on the wane, she might sweep the polls in aLok Sabha election, this time the Congress offsetting the advantage her tieups with smaller parties gave her in 1998. Though some “wellwishers” are exploring the possibility of a BJP-ADMK patch-up, this seems highly improbable. She will have to take the battle to the logical next step: withdrawal of support.

Three clear scenarios are emerging:

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Vajpayee manages to scrape through: Though the Prime Minister exudes confidence, this seems difficult. It will need the active support of the DMK, BSP and the Chautala-led Lok Dal to be home and dry. There are indications that the BJP is not getting anywhere with the DMK. There is little the BJP can offer the DMK, which has an alliance with the Left parties in the state, in the context of Tamil Nadu.

Though Mayawati has said that the BSP will open its cards at a later stage, the two Muslims in her five-member party in the Lok Sabha will find it difficult to support the BJP. The BSP can abstain in a vote but that is not going to be good enough. Chautala hasalready ruled out support to the government, though the BJP could split his four-member party. Given this situation, the BJP would have to swing large-scale absenteeism.

Sonia forms a Congress government supported by Jayalalitha and parties of the Third Front: The possibility of the Third Force leading a government are highly remote. There is no reason why the Congress should support the Third Force and get into the position of being neither in the Opposition nor in the Government. It was to get out of such a situation that it withdrew support to the Gujral government in 1997 using the flimsy ground of the Jain Commission.

If neither of the two scenarios work, it will be elections, possibly in early June with Vajpayee as caretaker Prime Minister.

Even if Vajpayee manages somehow to pull off a coup in the Lok Sabha, his government will become even more fragile and will find it difficult to pull on. Sonia Gandhi too will want to end her dependence on other parties and get popular legitimacy on herown even if she forms a government.

Either way, the country is now heading for elections, either in the summer or by the end of the year.