Eight per cent chance

Some numbers don8217;t lie. Some myths don8217;t die. Last weekend P. Chidambaram reacted to growth estimates of 2006-078217;s first quarter by asking for more 8220;political space8221; for reforms. The 8.9 per cent quarterly growth provoked discussions on a possible shift in the trend rate. The trend growth rate was around 6 per cent in 1990-2003. But that was the same as in the middle-late eighties, which saw the first decontrols and which helped India break away from the Hindu rate of growth. Most economists reckon it will take another three years to judge whether the 8 per cent rate seen since 2003 8212; the FM reckons 2006-07 may see 8 per cent too 8212; will produce an upward shift in the trend. Interestingly, in three years general elections will be due. That puts into focus Chidambaram8217;s argument for more reforms. Will the Congress in campaign mode sound as apologetic about liberal policies as it does now? The myth comes in here: Reformists apparently lose elections.

Let8217;s, again, get some facts clear. True, three liberalising prime ministers, Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, lost elections. But they had stopped reforming well before they went to polls. And the tipping point for all of them were assembly election losses: Haryana in 1987 for Rajiv, Karnataka and AP in 1994 for Rao and UP, Uttaranchal, Punjab in 2002 for Vajpayee. Each was told by his party that reforms kill support. But reforms do no such thing. Since 1977, when the Congress lost power for the first time, incumbents have won only twice. The Congress in 1984 and the BJP in 1999 rode, respectively, a sympathy wave Mrs Gandhi8217;s assassination and a patriotic wave the Kargil conflict. There8217;s no proof that reformists are electoral liabilities. And, interestingly, some chief ministers presiding over high state growth rates have been voted back and in Narendra Modi 8212; whatever one thinks of his politics 8212; and perhaps Naveen

Patnaik there are two more examples-in-waiting.

But guess what, if the Congress does none too impressively in the coming UP, Uttaranchal and Punjab polls, party pundits will whisper 8220;reforms8221;, conveniently forgetting the party did quite well in the Tamil Nadu and Assam elections a few months back. It is then that Chidambaram8217;s call for more political space for reforms will be tested. Will Manmohan Singh be allowed to read the numbers or be forced to swallow the myth?