In the world of money, I’m told, a major cause of financial discomfort is irrational expectation. People follow bubbles rather than reason; they buy at high prices out of a sense of heightened expectation and are forced to sell low when they are surrounded by the debris of such expectation. Cricket, I just fear, might be headed down that path in certain parts of the world.The current boom in cricket pricing is the result of the seemingly unending enthusiasm of the Indian consumer, the relative, and often willing lack of competition from other Indian sport and the heady economic situation here. And lest we be accused, as we often have others, of not being able to look beyond one’s nose, there is also a fairly significant contribution from a much-maligned American billionaire.The riches on offer here in India have not escaped the attention of others. Luckily the passage of knowledge doesn’t yet need visas and so other countries, notably England and Australia, are seeking to replicate the IPL model. However, they aspire to go beyond. They hope to entice Indian money, either through television rights or through ownership of franchises, towards their lands. That’s not an unfair business practice though it seems to ignore the two key factors mentioned earlier for the boom in India.The enthusiasm of the Indian consumer, except in very rare cases, doesn’t extend to matches played overseas where there is no Indian presence. And, more important, the heady growth of the Indian economy has been stopped in its tracks. The sensex has dropped like the batting average of a batsman who’d forgotten to pack his bat. Money is not easily available and it stands to reason that when a product is in relatively short supply, its owner will prioritise and spend it on what he needs the most. If Indian industry is forced to cut back on spending, it is unlikely to buy franchises in Southampton and Adelaide.That is what worries me the most. Cricket’s financial ambitions rest on one shaky premise; that India will continue to generate enough resources to finance everyone else. To prevent that from happening, each country will have to generate its own revenues, as they had been doing before mega television deals for the ICC became reality. However, having tasted a gulab jamun they are unlikely to be happy with a dry roti. Expectations are now irrational.Sudden affectionAnd so this sudden affection for Indian players. The Australian league, expected to debut in 2010, wants the best Indian players to play there so that, in combination with their own playing riches, they can create a product that television and corporate owners will be interested in. They are clear that their economy, and the competition from other sports, notably the AFL and the many forms of rugby that abound there, will not generate the riches that now seem to be regarded as mandatory.England, sadly, seem disinclined to smell the coffee. They are hoping to strike a hard bargain with India; offering some of their players for a mere 14 days and hoping to get the cream of India’s players to play in their own league beginning 2010 as well. There is an old truth about negotiation; it invariably asks the question: who needs whom more. India staged a very successful IPL without a single player from England. And while there is no doubt that the best English players will add substantially to the IPL, it can survive without them. And I do not see an Indian franchise willing to lock up a lot of money for a player available for no more than two out of the seven weeks.There is yet another reality of sport. Leagues either need to have global appeal or must possess an exciting revenue plan to induce foreign investment. The Premiership in England has been able to do that but France and Holland haven’t. English businesses will not invest in Dutch or French sport unless there is a compelling reason. So too with corporate India. And I think the message is clear. Leagues have to sustain themselves with local businesses till they become globally attractive as English football is in Asia. In India we have seen the other end of the stick as well where we had to be happy with small investments because the world either hadn’t noticed us or wasn’t allowed to. Cricket is different only because of a very unusual confluence of events.The other news for these leagues is that, sadly, Indian players now know what price tags to sport.
