Carbon copies won146;t do

Even though it is impossible to accurately pinpoint the relationship between CO2 concentration and global temperature rise, various computer models show a connection between the two. There are still a few sceptics doubting the influence of CO2 in global warming, but most have come round to accepting the relationship. Stern8217;s report warns that at 430 ppm of CO2, earth is already warmer by half a degree and is well on the way to a further half a degree rise because of the time it takes for temperature to change. If it rises and stays beyond 550 ppm, the temperature could increase by more than 3 degree centigrade and the consequences could be catastrophic. Almost 1/5th of Bangladesh could be under water due to rising sea levels and more than two hundred million people could be displaced worldwide. There would be extensive damage due to drought, flooding, tropical storms and heat waves. It is impossible to predict the consequences if the global temperature increases by 5 degree centigrade and above. Perhaps, human life as we know may be subject to cataclysmic changes.

Is it too late to save the planet or can anything be done? Because of the large time lag between emissions and temperature rise, any steps we take now may not have an immediate effect, but their mid-term and long-term consequences ranging from 50 years and beyond would be profound. Stern argues that through international agreements, protocols and new technologies it may be possible to stabilise the CO2 at 500 ppm in the next 10-20 years followed by a gradual decrease of 1-3 per cent per year.

Climate problem is a global issue and can be addressed only if there is international collective action. We need the nations of the world to first accept the dangers posed by global warming. There is no doubt that in the first place, the industrialised countries are responsible for the rise of CO2 levels. They must therefore take the lead not only in curtailing their present emissions but also coming out with innovative options to mitigate the damage.

So, what are Stern8217;s prescriptions? As an economist he has focussed on tax, trade and regulations. The tax will be levied on industries for CO2 emissions. In carbon trading, the emitter pays to the countries and industries that don8217;t emit, and the regulations impose a ceiling on how much each industry can emit. Stern recognises the deprivation felt by developing countries that are dependent on cheap fossil fuels like coal. He recommends an aid flow of up to 40 billion annually from developed countries to the developing ones and also enable technology transfer of low carbon technologies.

These solutions, we fear, are conventional and in other instances had not stood up to earlier promises. When it comes to international aid, there is a world of difference between promise and delivery. New carbon free technologies are going to be costly in the beginning and will require economy of scale and maturing before they become commonplace. Many developing countries barring China, India, Brazil and a few others, may not even have the wherewithal to pursue these technologies to their full potential. This is better done in developed countries that have a rich repertoire of experience in technological innovations. As a start, is it possible to agree on the developing countries continuing to use cheap and readily available fossil fuels while the developed countries agree on the ceiling of fossil fuel use? Hybrid cars, electric power from renewables and bio-fuels should first become the norm in developed countries before these innovations are exported to other parts of the world.

What does Stern8217;s prescription mean for India? To sustain India8217;s growth rate of 8 per cent, India has to generate at least an additional 10,000 MW of electric power annually, over 50 per cent of which may have to come from coal. While the country8217;s dependence on fossil fuel may have to continue for some more years, India with its growing scientific, technological and industrial base must pursue other low carbon technologies for its future energy needs. This presents a challenge and an opportunity for a national mission.

The writer is chairperson, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore. He has co-authored this article with Anshu Bharadwaj who is in the Indian Administrative Services The views expressed in this article do not represent the official position of the government.