A democratic recession

Since 1974, more than 90 countries have made transitions to democracy, and by the turn of the century approximately 60 per cent of the world8217;s independent states were democratic. The democratisation of Mexico and Indonesia in the late 1990s and the more recent 8220;colour revolutions8221; in Georgia and Ukraine formed the crest of a tidal wave of democratic transitions. Even in the Arab world, the trend is visible: in 2005, democratic forces in Lebanon rose up to peacefully drive out Syrian troops and Iraqis voted in multiparty parliamentary elections for the first time in nearly half a century.

But celebrations of democracy8217;s triumph are premature. In a few short years, the democratic wave has been slowed by a powerful authoritarian undertow, and the world has slipped into a democratic recession. Democracy has recently been overthrown or gradually stifled in a number of key states, including Nigeria, Russia, Thailand, Venezuela, and, most recently, Bangladesh and the Philippines. In December 2007, electoral fraud in Kenya delivered another abrupt and violent setback. At the same time, most newcomers to the democratic club and some long-standing members have performed poorly8230; In South Asia, where democracy once predominated, India is now surrounded by politically unstable, undemocratic states8230;

Before democracy can spread further, it must take deeper root where it has already sprouted. It is a basic principle of any military or geopolitical campaign that at some point an advancing force must consolidate its gains before it conquers more territory. Emerging democracies must demonstrate that they can solve their governance problems and meet their citizens8217; expectations for freedom, justice, a better life, and a fairer society.

From an article by Larry Diamond in the March/April issue of 8216;Foreign Affairs8217;