A cool head

Heightened tensions on the border today are the direct outcome of the flurryof Pakistani military activity which Indian intelligence agenc...

Heightened tensions on the border today are the direct outcome of the flurryof Pakistani military activity which Indian intelligence agencies havereported as well as intensified shelling of Indian border towns. GeorgeFernandes now confirms that roads and underground facilities are beingconstructed by Pakistan8217;s army in the northern sector. This kind of build-upmakes no military sense whatever Pakistan cannot hope to alter the LoC asit did briefly in Kargil but it does provoke counter-measures and helpraise the temperature all along the LoC and in Siachen. That would seem tobe General Pervez Musharraf8217;s intention. Since Kargil he has been cast inthe role of mischief-maker and quite rightly so. A border incident which canbe blamed at least partly on India would redress the balance, keepinternational attention focussed on Kashmir and would not jeopardise thefive-hour Clinton stopover in Islamabad. Despite the attendant risks of anaccident or unforeseen developments, it is Musharraf8217;s game, presumably, totake things to the brink.

The next few days are going to present a challenge to India8217;s securityforces along the LoC and test the judgement of army commanders in forwardpositions. They must expect trouble on the border and in the Valley duringPresident8217;s Clinton8217;s five-day yatra but must be careful not to precipitatea major incident themselves. This is easier said than done when troops areat a heightened level of preparedness as they perforce must be along the740-km LoC. Cool heads and sound judgement on the ground are what will makethe difference between denying Musharraf the propaganda victory he seeks andhanding it to him on a platter. He knows, as India8217;s commanders know, thatthe world media accompanying Clinton will be hyper-sensitive to noise on theborder having received its cues, as it were, on the eve of the trip from the8220;concern8221; expressed about India-Pakistan tensions in Washington and by theEuropean parliament. The Federation of American Scientists has done its bitby a well-timed release of satellite photos of missile and nuclear materialssites in the subcontinent.

The scenario on the Indo-Pak border increases the urge in Washington andBrussels to do something about the situation, no matter how inappropriate orunhelpful that 8220;something8221; might be in the long run. Thus an EU officiallast week defended the EU8217;s right to interfere in South Asia on grounds ofthe impasse and military confrontation between two nuclear capable nations.It is a stance Islamabad will find very encouraging. India is going to haveto negotiate its way very carefully between heightened concern in theinternational community and heightened military tension on the border. Itwould help the security forces do their job better and it would help thepublic generally get a better perspective on the border situation if thepolitical rhetoric were toned down. After Kargil there has been a tendencyto overflex muscle. A more mature posture is necessary. Islamabad should befirmly warned against any more reckless adventures but also assured thatthere is no aggressive intent in Indian moves such as the extraordinary hikein the defence budget.