India’s population 142.8 crore in 2023, crosses China’s: UN population report

Last year, China remained the most populous country with an estimated 144.8 crore people while India’s population was estimated at 140.6 crore.

Another UN Report, World Population Prospects 2022, that was released in July last year, had said that by 2050, India’s population would reach 166.8 crore, far exceeding China’s declining population at 131.7 crore. In 1950, India was at 86.1 crore, while China was at 114.4 crore. According to the UN projections, India’s population is expected to grow for the next three decades after which it will begin declining.

While the global population touched 8 billion last November, the new UNFPA report said it is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. According to the report, the estimated global population is 8,045 million, of which 65 per cent is between 15-64 years, 24 per cent between 10-24 years, and 10 per cent above 65 years.

“As the world reaches 8 billion people, we at UNFPA see India’s 1.4 billion people as 1.4 billion opportunities,” said Andrea Wojnar, the representative for United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) India and the country director for Bhutan.

“As the country with the largest youth cohort, its 254 million youth (15-24 years) can be a source of innovation, new thinking and lasting solutions. The trajectory can leapfrog forward if women and girls, in particular, are equipped with equal educational and skill-building opportunities, access to technology and digital innovations, and most importantly with information and power to fully exercise their reproductive rights and choices,” she said.

According to the report, the average life expectancy at birth for males in India is 71 years while for females it is 74 years. India’s total fertility rate (births per woman in the reproductive age) is estimated at 2.0.

The report indicates that population anxieties are widespread and governments are increasingly adopting policies aimed at raising, lowering or maintaining fertility rates. Addressing a virtual press conference ahead of the release of the report, Dr Natalia Kanem, Executive Director, UNFPA, said: “But efforts to influence fertility rates are very often ineffective and can erode women’s rights. Women’s bodies should not be held captive to population targets.”

“To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change,” she said. “Instead of asking how fast people are reproducing, leaders should ask whether individuals, especially women, are able to freely make their own reproductive choices – a question whose answer, too often, is no,” Kanem said.

As part of the report, a public survey was commissioned by UNFPA and conducted by YouGov, that asked a representative sample of 7,797 people across eight countries – India, Brazil, Egypt, France, Hungary, Japan, Nigeria, and the United States – for their views on population issues.

For India, the total sample size was 1,007 and the survey was carried out online. The analysis has been weighted and is representative of a national urban sample of adults in India (aged 18+).

• On identifying population-related matters of greatest importance, 63 per cent of Indians identified economic issues as the top concerns. This was followed by environmental concerns at 46 per cent, and sexual and reproductive health and rights, and human rights concerns at 30 per cent.
• The respondents held that India’s population was too large and fertility rates too high. There was no significant difference between the views of men and women on national fertility rates.
• The Indian survey findings also suggested that population anxieties have seeped into large portions of the general public.

While there is an increase in absolute numbers, the proportion of young people, which was over 30 per cent of the population in the 2011 Census, is expected to fall to 26.5 per cent, according to the UN’s 2022 projections.

“India outstripping China is no surprise and has been anticipated for some time now. But what has expedited the process is the fact that China’s growth has been slowing. Earlier this year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China reported that it had 850,000 fewer people in 2022 than the previous year,’’ Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India.

“What is significant is that India is in a unique position in which the young and working population is larger than the population which needs care (children and the elderly), unlike countries such as Japan with a declining population and an increasing elderly population. Such countries are, and will be, in dire need of skilled labour, and this is something that India can provide, capitalising on our demographic dividend,” said Muttreja.