The case against buying Casemiro: Why the midfielder isn’t an answer to Man United’s troubles

What does the Manchester United midfield need?

Under current manager Erik Ten Hag, Manchester United’s midfield pursuit through this summer has been for Barcelona playmaker Frenkie de Jong. Judging by that failed chase, what Ten Hag really wanted was a player who could do two things. Firstly, he required a player who could play with his back to the opposition team. Secondly, he required a midfielder who had the ability to bring the ball out from the midfield.

Ball-playing footballers are a wanted currency in a squad, and players of that calibre, especially central defenders and midfielders, are always in demand. It is why United captain Harry Maguire, routinely hounded on social media by fans galore, continues to be a vital cog for Manchester United, as well as the England national team, which recently reached the final of the Euro 2020.

It is also why Casemiro was so eagerly sold off by Real Madrid for a reported sum of 60 million pounds. That money will hold Real Madrid in good stead when they go after Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham next summer. While Casemiro can become a cog in the Manchester United midfield, it’s hard to see how he can fix the true problem that plagues this team.

Is Casemiro the answer to Manchester United’s problems?

On the face of it, highly unlikely. Casemiro is a defensive midfielder and Manchester United need a defensive midfielder – the comparisons end there.

The most important statistic for a defensive midfielder in an Erik Ten Hag team is ‘progressive carries’. This statistic defines how many times a player runs with the ball and essentially moves it further up the field. Ten Hag’s ideal defensive midfielder slots between both centre backs when needed and when in possession, receives the ball from the keeper or the centre back and progresses it forward. Casemiro, according to FBRef, has averaged just over three progressive carries per 90 minutes in his previous three seasons for Real Madrid. He ranks in the 35th percentile with respect to carries, in a team that routinely possesses the ball for 60% of the game. De Jong, on the other hand, was in the 94th percentile for progressive carries.

Casemiro is a great midfielder at what he does – which is to protect the ball carrier or distribute the ball to that individual. At Manchester United, there is no such individual at the heart of their midfield to protect or give the ball to (Scott McTominay ranks in the 77th percentile for progressive carries, Fred ranks in the 33rd percentile and Bruno Fernandes ranks in the 47th percentile). To pay £70 million, as reported by English media, for Casemiro seems largesse on the part of Manchester towards Madrid.

What does Casemiro bring to the table?

Casemiro consistently ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to tackles, blocks, clearances and aerial duels won. This is a significant statistic because Madrid’s possession went from averaging 60 per cent in the 2020-21 season to 68 per cent. Usually, that would mean that the percentages of defensive players and their best attributes like tackles, blocks and clearances would go down, but in the case of Casemiro, these statistics went up. The one thing that Casemiro can definitely add to the team is steel at the back – in fact, his numbers show that he’s one of the best in the world at it.

Casemiro plays at the base of the midfield and can easily slot in between two central defenders and pass to a midfielder who can move the ball forwards. He can be a disruptor to other teams playing the ball into United’s final third. But it’s the lack of effect that he brings on the possession aspect of football that should really worry about this transfer.

Is this a panic buy from Manchester United?

Very likely, yes. There is no dearth of defensive midfielders like Casemiro in the transfer market. Therefore, it’s bizarre that United have spent the amount of money that they have for a player who may help move the defensive needle marginally and doesn’t incur a tremble on the offensive end or when it comes to holding possession.

Keeping a midfield of Casemiro, Fred and McTominay would only reinvigorate teams facing them. A midfield that can barely hold on to possession and when they do, won’t be able to do much with it is almost criminal in 2022 in the Premier League.