What China’s period of New Year travel can mean for Covid cases

Two years of Covid-related restrictions and a strict Zero Covid policy later, 2023 will see the movement allowed on a sizeable scale for the first time since the pandemic began. Daily cases are rising as of January 10, a few weeks after scenes of chaos in the country’s hospitals were witnessed at the end of 2022 after the Covid policy was relaxed. And so, there is both concern and cautious optimism over what the period could lead to.

What is Chunyun and the Lunar New Year?

Chunyun is simply the period around the Chinese New Year, based on the Lunar Calendar. Chinese news agency Xinhua once translated it as “spring transportation”. It adds:

“For people that work away from their hometown, it refers to the happiness of reuniting with loved ones and the bitterness of battling for a train ticket; for railway staff it represents 40 days of arduous work; for scalpers it suggests a busy season of business… for the government it is a test of administrative ability.”

There is no fixed date for the New Year, with the date being arrived at based on the moon’s position. This year, it falls on January 22. Other names for the Lunar New Year are Tet in Vietnam, Solnal in Korea and Losar for Tibetans. It begins with the first new moon of the lunar calendar and ends on the first full moon of the lunar calendar, 15 days later.

New Year celebrations across many countries are accompanied by feasts, fireworks, lanterns and cultural events like lion dances, where many people get under a giant cloth-and-embellishments-studded lion for synchronised movement. As in many cultures, this is to symbolise warding off evil spirits in the new year and fresh beginnings.

Nancy Yao Maasbach, President of the Museum of Chinese in America, told Huffington Post that money is also gifted in red envelopes in China, with the colour associated with good luck. In Korea, this is done in silk pouches.

Can this impact Covid cases in the country?

Over the years, China has regularly reported increased travel during this period, with railway lines, in particular, seeing a rush as those living in cities travel to the smaller towns and villages.

In 2023, mainland China opened sea and land crossings with Hong Kong after three years and ended a requirement for incoming travellers to quarantine, termed by Reuters as “dismantling a final pillar of the zero-COVID policy that had shielded China’s 1.4 billion people from the virus but also cut them off from the rest of the world.”

This is where the worry comes in, because while many other countries are also seeing travel and crowds, none have had China’s lockdown-first strategy for virus containment, which had meant little exposure to the virus or immunity built up against it. Since around Christmas, daily cases have been rising on a steep curve, with nearly 7,666 new cases being reported daily as of January 8, according to Our World in Data.

Vaccinations manufactured in China are further believed to be not as effective as other vaccines made elsewhere in terms of preventing the spread, even though there is efficacy in terms of preventing serious illness. Still, many are yet to take boosters, particularly the at-risk population of elderly people. The government has said it is stocking up on adequate health facilities. It has also claimed that the infections have peaked already.

What can China opening up mean for the economy?

Unleashing the potential of pent-up demand because of the pandemic is crucial for China. Notably, even before 2020, there was some economic slowdown noticed overall.

The World Bank and private sector forecasters cut estimates of China’s economic growth last year to 2.2%. The International Monetary Fund expects a recovery of 4.4% this year, but that still would be among the lowest levels of the past three decades.

But other countries are still cautious of these plans. The US has said it will require a mandatory Covid test for those travelling from China. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said pre-boarding negative coronavirus test results will be needed for passengers on direct flights from the country. Japan will also continue to ask airlines to limit additional flights from China. In turn, China has termed these plans discriminatory and said it will retaliate with its own measures.

Some East Asian countries, which are travel favourites for people in China, have also announced similar measures.