What are exit polls, and what rules govern them in India?

What are exit polls?

An exit poll asks voters which political party they are supporting after they have cast their votes in an election. In this, it differs from an opinion poll, which is held before the elections. An exit poll is supposed to give an indication of which way the winds are blowing in an election, along with the issues, personalities, and loyalties that have influenced voters.

Today, exit polls in India are conducted by a number of organisations, often in tie-ups with media organisations. The surveys can be conducted face to face or online.

What makes an exit poll good or bad

Some common parameters for a good, or accurate, opinion poll would be a sample size that is both large and diverse, and a clearly constructed questionnaire without an overt bias. Sanjay Kumar, Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, has earlier written in The Indian Express, “Without a structured questionnaire, the data can neither be collected coherently nor be analysed systematically to arrive at vote share estimates.”

Political parties often allege that these polls are motivated, or financed by a rival party. Critics also say that the results gathered in exit polls can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn.

History of exit polls in India

Sanjay Kumar has written that in 1957, during the second Lok Sabha elections, the Indian Institute of Public Opinion had conducted such a poll.

Rules governing exit polls in India

The issue of when exit polls should be allowed to be published has gone to the Supreme Court thrice in various forms. Read our detailed explainer on that here. Currently, exit polls can’t be telecast from before voting begins till the last phase concludes.

For the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections, the Election Commission notified that publishing any exit poll would be prohibited between 8am on November 12 and 5.30pm on December 5. While Himachal Pradesh voted on November 12, Gujarat voted in two phases on December 1 and December 5. Results for both states are out on December 8.