IMD: Monsoon will revive this week

With a 43 per cent deficit, it is close to the 1923 deficit of 42.7 per cent while, interestingly, the month of June, in a first in the last 100 years, has seen twelve instances where the monsoon deficit has been more than 30 per cent. In the data put up by the Met department, the month of June had seen a deficit upto 47.2 per cent in 2009, the drought year, while the most severe was in 1926 with 48.3 per cent deficit. The years from 1901 has seen atleast eleven such instances.

Presently with a 43 per cent deficit of rainfall in the country, the central parts have been hardest hit, recording a deficit of 61 per cent, followed by northwest India with 55 per cent, southern India with 37 per cent and east and north east India at 26 per cent.

With this being an El Nino year, Khole said that there has been no direct impact yet of the El Nino and the Met department feels the intensity would be upto 70 per cent. “It is not necessary that this will directly affect the rainfall in the month of July as it can happen after the month. There is also a possibility that even with El Nino, the monsoon would be normal, as the long period average rainfall for the season is set at 93 per cent,’’ said Khole in the interaction. She said that there were adverse drought years but they were not El Nino years and vice versa.

She said the tropical nature of India makes predicting rainfall difficult. She noted that there are presently 150 observatories in the country but there need to be more for better predictions.

This year, the monsoon reached Andamans two days in advance but the progress was stalled by the cyclone Nanauk, and the onset in Kerala took place on June 6. Post that, it has received a set back. Hardly any rainfall was recorded except in the southern parts and the north eastern parts.