World Meteorological Organization says weak La Niña to prevail till March 2026, may trigger colder winter in India

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the ocean-atmosphere phenomena that emerge over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can influence global weather. It has three phases: warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral (ENSO), and conditions alternate between the three once every 2 to 7 years.

El Niño is generally associated with harsher summers and below-average rainfall, whereas La Niña can trigger harsher cold conditions.

Currently, global models also indicate that sea surface temperatures will slowly transition to ENSO-neutral after March 2026.

“For periods during January–March and February–April 2026, there is a 65 per cent and 75 per cent likelihood for the temperatures to return to ENSO-neutral conditions,” WMO added.

However, the models have ruled out the development of El Niño in the near future.

Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) used its weather model to predict that ENSO-neutral conditions were likely to develop in early 2026. The prevailing La Niña conditions would be one of the contributing factors to a colder winter in India this year.

Likewise, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO counterpart in the Indian Ocean, too, is expected to return to the neutral phase, IMD said.